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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 4, 2024 8:07:02 GMT -5
Pats in radio silence on Penix Really loud about taking JJM I think that is your shortlist of QBs they are considering. That’s exactly the thought process of what I’ve been hearing/reading, it’s lying season and the Patriots are in full pre-draft lying mode. They are now being rumored to be lying about their infatuation with McCarthy to get the Vikings to trade up for him. They are also said to be doing the same with Maye, and getting the Giants to trade up for him (although there is the thought they will just take Maye if he is there). And lastly, they are in total radio silence over Penix, which is an indication HE is the guy they really want, or will trade down and concede for. Of course recent history tells us that trading down can also backfire and blow up on your face…and nothing the Patriots have done over the last 3-4 years makes me believe they would be immune to that. I think Calib Williams goes number 1, Drake Maye number 2, and the Patriots will have a lot of options sitting there with the phones ringing. One thing of interest…there’s a thought that management is afraid to not trade down because to take the quarterback at three means their entire fate will be tied to that guy (with a good chance it won’t work), and then they’ll not only be fired in a couple years, but always be remembered for screwing this up. Whereas trading down and acquiring multiple picks/assets really muddles the waters, and doesn’t make things quite as clear as to what they screwed up (especially if whoever trades up for the QB also fails). I think BB has done a great job of doing THAT in the past…trading away great players, taking picks, trading those picks into the future, taking multiple different players all over the place, and leaving a very confusing trail behind of just who/what they actually got in trade for the player they traded away. I hope THIS ^^^ is not the strategy, I want the QB early. On the cowardly trade down scenario I say...HAVE SOME BALLS!!! I'm with you. |
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 4, 2024 9:08:22 GMT -5
Pats in radio silence on Penix Really loud about taking JJM I think that is your shortlist of QBs they are considering. That’s exactly the thought process of what I’ve been hearing/reading, it’s lying season and the Patriots are in full pre-draft lying mode. They are now being rumored to be lying about their infatuation with McCarthy to get the Vikings to trade up for him. They are also said to be doing the same with Maye, and getting the Giants to trade up for him (although there is the thought they will just take Maye if he is there). And lastly, they are in total radio silence over Penix, which is an indication HE is the guy they really want, or will trade down and concede for. Of course recent history tells us that trading down can also backfire and blow up on your face…and nothing the Patriots have done over the last 3-4 years makes me believe they would be immune to that. I think Calib Williams goes number 1, Drake Maye number 2, and the Patriots will have a lot of options sitting there with the phones ringing. One thing of interest…there’s a thought that management is afraid to not trade down because to take the quarterback at three means their entire fate will be tied to that guy (with a good chance it won’t work), and then they’ll not only be fired in a couple years, but always be remembered for screwing this up. Whereas trading down and acquiring multiple picks/assets really muddles the waters, and doesn’t make things quite as clear as to what they screwed up (especially if whoever trades up for the QB also fails). I think BB has done a great job of doing THAT in the past…trading away great players, taking picks, trading those picks into the future, taking multiple different players all over the place, and leaving a very confusing trail behind of just who/what they actually got in trade for the player they traded away. I hope THIS ^^^ is not the strategy, I want the QB early. If you go through the decades, taking the QB #1 overall is the only spot to draft a QB and have a materially significant (especially if you include opportunity cost) probability of landing a QB that will get you a Super Bowl....or even close.
Fun fact: no QB drafted #3 has ever won a Super Bowl.
Peeps: it doesn't matter much (other than #1) where in the 1st rd you draft the QB.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 4, 2024 9:24:07 GMT -5
That’s exactly the thought process of what I’ve been hearing/reading, it’s lying season and the Patriots are in full pre-draft lying mode. They are now being rumored to be lying about their infatuation with McCarthy to get the Vikings to trade up for him. They are also said to be doing the same with Maye, and getting the Giants to trade up for him (although there is the thought they will just take Maye if he is there). And lastly, they are in total radio silence over Penix, which is an indication HE is the guy they really want, or will trade down and concede for. Of course recent history tells us that trading down can also backfire and blow up on your face…and nothing the Patriots have done over the last 3-4 years makes me believe they would be immune to that. I think Calib Williams goes number 1, Drake Maye number 2, and the Patriots will have a lot of options sitting there with the phones ringing. One thing of interest…there’s a thought that management is afraid to not trade down because to take the quarterback at three means their entire fate will be tied to that guy (with a good chance it won’t work), and then they’ll not only be fired in a couple years, but always be remembered for screwing this up. Whereas trading down and acquiring multiple picks/assets really muddles the waters, and doesn’t make things quite as clear as to what they screwed up (especially if whoever trades up for the QB also fails). I think BB has done a great job of doing THAT in the past…trading away great players, taking picks, trading those picks into the future, taking multiple different players all over the place, and leaving a very confusing trail behind of just who/what they actually got in trade for the player they traded away. I hope THIS ^^^ is not the strategy, I want the QB early. If you go through the decades, taking the QB #1 overall is the only spot to draft a QB and have a materially significant (especially if you include opportunity cost) probability of landing a QB that will get you a Super Bowl....or even close.
Fun fact: no QB drafted #3 has ever won a Super Bowl.
Peeps: it doesn't matter much (other than #1) where in the 1st rd you draft the QB.
That said, it's conceivable that five QB's are taken in the top 10 (Williams, JJM, Daniels, Maye & Penix Jr.), and six in Rd 1 (if you include Nix), so if they do move down, it can't be far, or you probably won't be able to get your guy. Now, it's also conceivable that they love Nix (much like Chris Simms), which could give them a little more leeway, but even he's probably gone by the 20's if they other five are take early. |
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Post by garytx on Apr 4, 2024 9:35:03 GMT -5
Who ever the QB is at pick 3 my hopes are that they are in love with the guy. Don't pick a QB for the sake of picking a QB. You trade out if you're not happy with what's there. With the exception of Williams all these QBs have issues. The good thing is who ever is selected he will be on the bench for a while learning and working on what ever issue that player may have. I wouldn't mind them getting Maye. Daniels scares me a bit. Too much going on there. McCarthy had a great team around him so he looks to much of an unknown to me as well. I haven't seen a whole lot on Nix and wonder what's going on there. He improved each year he played with the exception of his sophomore year which he played hurt. I've seen Penix play several games and he impresses. People say he's injury prone but that was at the start of his career. The last two years he's looked very good.
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Post by rkarp on Apr 4, 2024 9:37:11 GMT -5
If you go through the decades, taking the QB #1 overall is the only spot to draft a QB and have a materially significant (especially if you include opportunity cost) probability of landing a QB that will get you a Super Bowl....or even close.
Fun fact: no QB drafted #3 has ever won a Super Bowl.
Peeps: it doesn't matter much (other than #1) where in the 1st rd you draft the QB.
That said, it's conceivable that five QB's are taken in the top 10 (Williams, JJM, Daniels, Maye & Penix Jr.), and six in Rd 1 (if you include Nix), so if they do move down, it can't be far, or you probably won't be able to get your guy. Now, it's also conceivable that they love Nix (much like Chris Simms), which could give them a little more leeway, but even he's probably gone by the 20's if they other five are take early. we could see 6 in the top 12 (Denver or LVR) |
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 4, 2024 10:06:31 GMT -5
That said, it's conceivable that five QB's are taken in the top 10 (Williams, JJM, Daniels, Maye & Penix Jr.), and six in Rd 1 (if you include Nix), so if they do move down, it can't be far, or you probably won't be able to get your guy. Now, it's also conceivable that they love Nix (much like Chris Simms), which could give them a little more leeway, but even he's probably gone by the 20's if they other five are take early. we could see 6 in the top 12 (Denver or LVR) We could, yes... that 1st round is gonna be mostly QB's, WR's and OT's... then DB's and EDGE types... or at least that's how I'd project it to go, based on the strengths of the class. |
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Post by quagmire3 on Apr 4, 2024 13:29:34 GMT -5
we could see 6 in the top 12 (Denver or LVR) We could, yes... that 1st round is gonna be mostly QB's, WR's and OT's... then DB's and EDGE types... or at least that's how I'd project it to go, based on the strengths of the class. Agreed. Which means if BB was still here, he would trade down a couple times get a couple first rounders (Minnesota) and probably take the # 1 rated DL and edge in the draft. Chandler Jones / Donte Hightower part deux! |
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 4, 2024 13:40:43 GMT -5
We could, yes... that 1st round is gonna be mostly QB's, WR's and OT's... then DB's and EDGE types... or at least that's how I'd project it to go, based on the strengths of the class. Agreed. Which means if BB was still here, he would trade down a couple times get a couple first rounders (Minnesota) and probably take the # 1 rated DL and edge in the draft. Chandler Jones / Donte Hightower part deux! IDK what he'd do (double dipping on defense when your offense is a train wreck is within reason for him, haha... the man loves defense), but double dipping in Rd 1, with neither of them being a QB would look pretty silly, when QB is easily your #1 need, and there are numerous Rd 1 graded QB's available to you. |
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Post by TFB12 on Apr 4, 2024 14:30:40 GMT -5
Penix hasn't missed a game in the last two years. He throws a damn nice ball.
My current rankings
Williams
Daniels
JJ
Maye
Penix
Could possibly swap Maye and Penix by draft night.
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Post by rkarp on Apr 4, 2024 15:52:02 GMT -5
reason to trade back
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 4, 2024 15:58:16 GMT -5
Pats in radio silence on Penix Really loud about taking JJM I think that is your shortlist of QBs they are considering. I wouldn’t put any stock into the amount of contact they’ve had with any of these guys. It means absolutely nothing Maybe |
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Post by mthurl on Apr 4, 2024 16:19:10 GMT -5
That’s exactly the thought process of what I’ve been hearing/reading, it’s lying season and the Patriots are in full pre-draft lying mode. They are now being rumored to be lying about their infatuation with McCarthy to get the Vikings to trade up for him. They are also said to be doing the same with Maye, and getting the Giants to trade up for him (although there is the thought they will just take Maye if he is there). And lastly, they are in total radio silence over Penix, which is an indication HE is the guy they really want, or will trade down and concede for. Of course recent history tells us that trading down can also backfire and blow up on your face…and nothing the Patriots have done over the last 3-4 years makes me believe they would be immune to that. I think Calib Williams goes number 1, Drake Maye number 2, and the Patriots will have a lot of options sitting there with the phones ringing. One thing of interest…there’s a thought that management is afraid to not trade down because to take the quarterback at three means their entire fate will be tied to that guy (with a good chance it won’t work), and then they’ll not only be fired in a couple years, but always be remembered for screwing this up. Whereas trading down and acquiring multiple picks/assets really muddles the waters, and doesn’t make things quite as clear as to what they screwed up (especially if whoever trades up for the QB also fails). I think BB has done a great job of doing THAT in the past…trading away great players, taking picks, trading those picks into the future, taking multiple different players all over the place, and leaving a very confusing trail behind of just who/what they actually got in trade for the player they traded away. I hope THIS ^^^ is not the strategy, I want the QB early. If you go through the decades, taking the QB #1 overall is the only spot to draft a QB and have a materially significant (especially if you include opportunity cost) probability of landing a QB that will get you a Super Bowl....or even close.
Fun fact: no QB drafted #3 has ever won a Super Bowl.
Peeps: it doesn't matter much (other than #1) where in the 1st rd you draft the QB.
There are 224 players eligible to be drafted every year. There’s only 34 QB’s that have ever won a Super Bowl. Eight of those quarterbacks were drafted one overall. 17 were drafted in the first round. I’ll take my chances drafting one in the first round as high as first overall as I can get. |
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Post by rkarp on Apr 4, 2024 17:31:35 GMT -5
Hey MtHurl. miss him yet?
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Post by jri37 on Apr 4, 2024 17:34:25 GMT -5
Hey MtHurl. miss him yet? One of my buddies texted me earlier told me on EEI they gave Mac a rap song name… NOTORIOUS INT |
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Post by rkarp on Apr 4, 2024 17:40:45 GMT -5
Hey MtHurl. miss him yet? One of my buddies texted me earlier told me on EEI they gave Mac a rap song name… NOTORIOUS INT I got that same text! one of his songs was "my weapons suck" and another was "I don't do lines of blow, my o-line blows" |
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Post by jri37 on Apr 4, 2024 18:17:17 GMT -5
One of my buddies texted me earlier told me on EEI they gave Mac a rap song name… NOTORIOUS INT I got that same text! one of his songs was "my weapons suck" and another was "I don't do lines of blow, my o-line blows" That’s pretty funny. |
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Post by TFB12 on Apr 4, 2024 19:51:29 GMT -5
One of my buddies texted me earlier told me on EEI they gave Mac a rap song name… NOTORIOUS INT I got that same text! one of his songs was "my weapons suck" and another was "I don't do lines of blow, my o-line blows" don’t for get about his hit songs “The only thing sharp about my coach was the pencil in his cap” And “My coach knew as much about offense as he did about healthy eating” |
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 4, 2024 22:43:38 GMT -5
Hey MtHurl. miss him yet? One of my buddies texted me earlier told me on EEI they gave Mac a rap song name… NOTORIOUS INT They also called him 2Pic instead of 2Pac |
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Post by CWTB on Apr 4, 2024 23:18:59 GMT -5
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 4, 2024 23:52:39 GMT -5
You should try to check out Indiana's win percentage without Penix compared to Indiana's win percentage with Penix. |
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Post by CWTB on Apr 5, 2024 1:27:23 GMT -5
Penix improved Washington, went from 4-8 to 11-2. Penix was good at Indiana before his injuries, have to rethink this.
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Post by mthurl on Apr 5, 2024 3:57:03 GMT -5
I got that same text! one of his songs was "my weapons suck" and another was "I don't do lines of blow, my o-line blows" don’t for get about his hit songs “The only thing sharp about my coach was the pencil in his cap” And “My coach knew as much about offense as he did about healthy eating” Don’t forget the number one hit! “I Threw…my coach under the bus”. Under the bus was the only target he ever hit. |
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 5, 2024 6:03:41 GMT -5
Rome Odunze year before Penix: 41 catches, 415 yards 10.1yds/catch Rome Odunze 1st year with Penix: 75 catches, 1145 yards, 15.3yds/catch Same goes for the other Washington WR's. Seems like Penix makes people/team around him better.
EDIT: quick check, Michigan was 12-2 the year before JJM became QB (was ranked #2 in the country). So JJM took over an elite team. Sometimes I judge a man's character on how far he's traveled, not just his final destination.
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Post by belestrator on Apr 5, 2024 6:24:16 GMT -5
I like Penix, but I do have concerns. In addition to concerns about his age (24 next month) and his injury history, I do worry about how poorly he performed against Michigan in the title game. In that game, he was 27 for 51 for 255 yards, with 1 TD and 2 Ints. He was under pressure, but also uncharacteristically missed a lot of passes.
Am wondering what your thoughts are about his performance vs. Michigan. Thanks.
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 5, 2024 6:24:52 GMT -5
Roman Wilson year b4 JJM: 25 catches, 420 yards
Roman Wilson first year with JJM: 25 catches 376 yards
Tez Walker year b4 Maye (Kent State): 58 catches, 921 yards
Tez Walker first year with Maye: 41 catches, 699 yards
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