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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 15:05:38 GMT -5
Penix is nothing like Vick, Lamar Jackson is. Penix is a passer, passed for accuracy in college. He’s also not as fast or as good a runner. Penix is as fast as Lamar. Just runs much less because he has more confidence in is arm than Lamar does. |
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Post by Wozzy on Apr 14, 2024 15:58:42 GMT -5
Penix is as fast as Lamar. Just runs much less because he has more confidence in is arm than Lamar does. Penix runs a 4.5 forty, while good for a QB, that's nowhere as fast as Vick or Lamar. Vick ran a 4.3 forty at the combine, Lamar didn't run at all but reportedly had sub 4.4 speed according to his college teammates. Penix was a much better passer in college, and probably will be in the pros, but it's just a terrible player comparison. With Penix's injury history I don't want him running at all, I'm certainly not dialing up designed runs like you actually have to with Lamar. |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 16:03:17 GMT -5
Penix is as fast as Lamar. Just runs much less because he has more confidence in is arm than Lamar does. Penix runs a 4.5 forty, while good for a QB, that's nowhere as fast as Vick or Lamar. Vick ran a 4.3 forty at the combine, Lamar didn't run at all but reportedly had sub 4.4 speed according to his college teammates. Penix was a much better passer in college, and probably will be in the pros, but it's just a terrible player comparison. With Penix's injury history I don't want him running at all, I'm certainly not dialing up designed runs like you actually have to with Lamar. My bad. I thought Lamar ran a 4.58. It was the CB with the same name who ran 4.58. That guy needs to just change his name. |
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Post by Wozzy on Apr 14, 2024 16:14:14 GMT -5
My bad. I thought Lamar ran a 4.58. It was the CB with the same name who ran 4.58. That guy needs to just change his name. It's still pretty good, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Jalen Hurts, Desmond Ridder type speed... but not the type of speed Lamar and Vick possess. I'd rather have the complete unknown of Penix over the known of Lamar or Vick, there's a reason why neither of them wins in the playoffs... their arm, but probably more accurately the muscle between their shoulders. |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 16:23:09 GMT -5
My bad. I thought Lamar ran a 4.58. It was the CB with the same name who ran 4.58. That guy needs to just change his name. It's still pretty good, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Jalen Hurts, Desmond Ridder type speed... but not the type of speed Lamar and Vick possess. I'd rather have the complete unknown of Penix over the known of Lamar or Vick, there's a reason why neither of them wins in the playoffs... their arm, but probably more accurately the muscle between their shoulders. The neck? |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 16:36:12 GMT -5
When it comes to throwing mechanics, I just do not understand why people (young players and coaches) don't do the obvious. Go watch Tom Brady throw the ball and incorporate as much of that as possible. He does pretty much everything right. So does Drew Brees. Watch Brees at the beginning and Brady toward the end of the video. Oh, and don't listen to the blowhards talking or drawing the etch-a-sketch. Just watch Brady and Brees and compare their motion to your favorite QB's. The farther your QB is from Brees/Brady form, the worse your QB is.
EDIT: ignore the other QBs on this film. Their throwing motions are very mid.
I do not think I saw anything epiphanous on that video. Weight shift at different stages of the throw, non-throwing elbow clearing, etc. - they're all pretty commone sense. That's how most people would throw a ball hard. As for the arm slot, I think the whole idea of throwing from as close to 12 0-clock being best is sound only to an extent. It does not account for differences in the structure of joints in the shoulders and elbows. I think there comes a point where that is just dogma. My analogy is that before Stephon Curry, all coaches thought there was one best way to shoot the ball and that you could not be a good shooter if you shot the ball with the same chucking motion like Curry does. EDIT: Speaking of sporting mechanics dogma... I am watching the Masters right now. They just showed a slomo of Scheffler's drive on the 13th tee. On his drive, Scheffler's feet move so much, it's a gross violation of everything that swing coaches teach about keeping your feet quiet. |
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Post by garytx on Apr 14, 2024 16:39:09 GMT -5
He has a quick release which is good in the NFL. Besides, you could say that about any college QB going to the NFL. Nobody knows who will pan out or why.You do not. But you still have to make a decision on what to do on R1P3. You are just trying to beat the probability of failure, which is high. So you try to make the best decision based on the facts at hand. All you have is what they have done in college. But there is a difference between what they have done and what people speculate they could have done (if they had this, if they had that). A while back (at least 10 years now), I saw a video of a GM talking about a draft prospect WR whom he viewed as someone who had all the awesome physical and athletic tools (Sorry, I cannot remember who the GM was or who the WR was). But he would not assign a high grade on the prospect because with all the tools he possessed, the WR could not pull them all together and translate them into performance (which shows up in stats). I am not saying that stats are the most important thing. I am just saying that it is important enough not to disregard. The only thing I can argue about is stats. Maye didn't have much of a running game around him. Defenses knew he was going to throw. McCarthy had a running game and a great defense to help him. Did that give a false reading on his stats? It's just something teams have to weigh by watching film and interviews. All these QBs have good stats yet what separates them. Nix and Penix may slip into the 2nd round for example which would surprise me. You do make the best decision with the data you have no question. You try to zero in on your guy. I don't believe anybody goes into the draft thinking failure. |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 16:55:24 GMT -5
You do not. But you still have to make a decision on what to do on R1P3. You are just trying to beat the probability of failure, which is high. So you try to make the best decision based on the facts at hand. All you have is what they have done in college. But there is a difference between what they have done and what people speculate they could have done (if they had this, if they had that). A while back (at least 10 years now), I saw a video of a GM talking about a draft prospect WR whom he viewed as someone who had all the awesome physical and athletic tools (Sorry, I cannot remember who the GM was or who the WR was). But he would not assign a high grade on the prospect because with all the tools he possessed, the WR could not pull them all together and translate them into performance (which shows up in stats). I am not saying that stats are the most important thing. I am just saying that it is important enough not to disregard. The only thing I can argue about is stats. Maye didn't have much of a running game around him. Defenses knew he was going to throw. McCarthy had a running game and a great defense to help him. Did that give a false reading on his stats? It's just something teams have to weigh by watching film and interviews. All these QBs have good stats yet what separates them. Nix and Penix may slip into the 2nd round for example which would surprise me. You do make the best decision with the data you have no question. You try to zero in on your guy. I don't believe anybody goes into the draft thinking failure. Penix did not either. Dillon Johnson ran for 3.0 yds per carry against MI; 2.3 yds per carry against TX. I actually find it weird that JJM is being talked about being a top 5 QB while Blake Corum has a Rd 3 grade (even with a 4.53 on the 40). |
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Post by garytx on Apr 14, 2024 16:59:20 GMT -5
The only thing I can argue about is stats. Maye didn't have much of a running game around him. Defenses knew he was going to throw. McCarthy had a running game and a great defense to help him. Did that give a false reading on his stats? It's just something teams have to weigh by watching film and interviews. All these QBs have good stats yet what separates them. Nix and Penix may slip into the 2nd round for example which would surprise me. You do make the best decision with the data you have no question. You try to zero in on your guy. I don't believe anybody goes into the draft thinking failure. Penix did not either. Dillon Johnson ran for 3.0 yds per carry against MI; 2.3 yds per carry against TX. I actually find it weird that JJM is being talked about being a top 5 QB while Blake Corum has a Rd 3 grade (even with a 4.53 on the 40). I hear ya on Corum. Don't understand that one. |
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 14, 2024 17:16:33 GMT -5
The only thing I can argue about is stats. Maye didn't have much of a running game around him. Defenses knew he was going to throw. McCarthy had a running game and a great defense to help him. Did that give a false reading on his stats? It's just something teams have to weigh by watching film and interviews. All these QBs have good stats yet what separates them. Nix and Penix may slip into the 2nd round for example which would surprise me. You do make the best decision with the data you have no question. You try to zero in on your guy. I don't believe anybody goes into the draft thinking failure. Penix did not either. Dillon Johnson ran for 3.0 yds per carry against MI; 2.3 yds per carry against TX. I actually find it weird that JJM is being talked about being a top 5 QB while Blake Corum has a Rd 3 grade (even with a 4.53 on the 40). It seems to me, a lot of organizations draft on hope rather than evidence. Weirdly they ignore evidence in favor of hope. Lamar's evidence was ignored while Trey Lance became the poster boy for hope based drafting. Who knows why this is? Happens all the time. I mean every player is drafted on a measure of hope, I just think in the 1st 3 rounds it needs to be more EVIDENCE based. But right now we are HOPING: -Penix injury label is expired (Some evidence it has) -Maye can fix his erratic decision making(no evidence he can) -JJM can be counted on to carry a team offensively (No evidence he can) -Daniels can avoid getting destroyed physically in the NFL (No evidence yet) -Caleb is not an entitled brat ( No evidence yet) |
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 14, 2024 22:10:04 GMT -5
When it comes to throwing mechanics, I just do not understand why people (young players and coaches) don't do the obvious. Go watch Tom Brady throw the ball and incorporate as much of that as possible. He does pretty much everything right. So does Drew Brees. Watch Brees at the beginning and Brady toward the end of the video. Oh, and don't listen to the blowhards talking or drawing the etch-a-sketch. Just watch Brady and Brees and compare their motion to your favorite QB's. The farther your QB is from Brees/Brady form, the worse your QB is.
EDIT: ignore the other QBs on this film. Their throwing motions are very mid.
I do not think I saw anything epiphanous on that video. Weight shift at different stages of the throw, non-throwing elbow clearing, etc. - they're all pretty commone sense. That's how most people would throw a ball hard. As for the arm slot, I think the whole idea of throwing from as close to 12 0-clock being best is sound only to an extent. It does not account for differences in the structure of joints in the shoulders and elbows. I think there comes a point where that is just dogma. My analogy is that before Stephon Curry, all coaches thought there was one best way to shoot the ball and that you could not be a good shooter if you shot the ball with the same chucking motion like Curry does. EDIT: Speaking of sporting mechanics dogma... I am watching the Masters right now. They just showed a slomo of Scheffler's drive on the 13th tee. On his drive, Scheffler's feet move so much, it's a gross violation of everything that swing coaches teach about keeping your feet quiet. I think vast majority of people focus on the ancillary. The key for me, which is quite apparent in the video, especially when you look at someone like Kyler Murray and compare to Brady......is the path the ball takes. The ball should not take weird or long pathlengths. A compact delivery is more repeatable.
Kyler and JJM tend to extend their throwing arm almost 180 degrees, pointing almost directly backward. This is very bad because the path the ball travels is much longer than a TB or Brees or even a Penix.
Just like my incurable golf swing....for decades I tried to stop going past parallel.....wanted that 3/4 swing. Going past parallel gave me more power, but much less control. So someone like JJM gets his power from extending the ball farther back than he should.
The more machinations the ball is put through during the backswing, the less likely you are to repeat that swing/throw.
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 15, 2024 15:14:53 GMT -5
I do not think I saw anything epiphanous on that video. Weight shift at different stages of the throw, non-throwing elbow clearing, etc. - they're all pretty commone sense. That's how most people would throw a ball hard. As for the arm slot, I think the whole idea of throwing from as close to 12 0-clock being best is sound only to an extent. It does not account for differences in the structure of joints in the shoulders and elbows. I think there comes a point where that is just dogma. My analogy is that before Stephon Curry, all coaches thought there was one best way to shoot the ball and that you could not be a good shooter if you shot the ball with the same chucking motion like Curry does. EDIT: Speaking of sporting mechanics dogma... I am watching the Masters right now. They just showed a slomo of Scheffler's drive on the 13th tee. On his drive, Scheffler's feet move so much, it's a gross violation of everything that swing coaches teach about keeping your feet quiet. I think vast majority of people focus on the ancillary. The key for me, which is quite apparent in the video, especially when you look at someone like Kyler Murray and compare to Brady......is the path the ball takes. The ball should not take weird or long pathlengths. A compact delivery is more repeatable.
Kyler and JJM tend to extend their throwing arm almost 180 degrees, pointing almost directly backward. This is very bad because the path the ball travels is much longer than a TB or Brees or even a Penix.
Just like my incurable golf swing....for decades I tried to stop going past parallel.....wanted that 3/4 swing. Going past parallel gave me more power, but much less control. So someone like JJM gets his power from extending the ball farther back than he should.
The more machinations the ball is put through during the backswing, the less likely you are to repeat that swing/throw.
I think the mechanics thing is overblown. Compact(Brady/Marino) or long(Favre/Young) It doesn't matter, as long as you know when and how. I would describe compact as elbow lower and closer to the body. All passing mechanics cock the ball behind their ear during the load up ( some farther than others but its marginal). Some passers take a lot longer than others to go from the load phase to the release phase. That may be something to actually be concerned with. Quick release passers who are accurate ( like Penix) will always fare better than other passers. Long throwing motion I would describe as elbow farther from the body and sometimes higher raised, maybe a little slower release, but marginal. Since Extended is the opposite of Compact in the vehicle world, I think I will follow suit and call the Long throwing mechanic the Extended throwing mechanic. Again I think none of it matters if you can get it off accurately. Indecisiveness is the REAL problem. Can you read a defense and make the right choice CONSISTENTLY as well as EXECUTE the right pass. Mac could read a defense, but he couldn't make the necessary throws. I see the same thing with Maye except, I think he is not as good as Mac at going through progressions. |
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Post by rkarp on Apr 15, 2024 15:19:32 GMT -5
if he is there at #13, I believe the Raiders take Penix
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Post by backbay on Apr 15, 2024 18:28:41 GMT -5
Penix did not either. Dillon Johnson ran for 3.0 yds per carry against MI; 2.3 yds per carry against TX. I actually find it weird that JJM is being talked about being a top 5 QB while Blake Corum has a Rd 3 grade (even with a 4.53 on the 40). It seems to me, a lot of organizations draft on hope rather than evidence. Weirdly they ignore evidence in favor of hope. Lamar's evidence was ignored while Trey Lance became the poster boy for hope based drafting. Who knows why this is? Happens all the time. I mean every player is drafted on a measure of hope, I just think in the 1st 3 rounds it needs to be more EVIDENCE based. But right now we are HOPING: -Penix injury label is expired (Some evidence it has) -Maye can fix his erratic decision making(no evidence he can) -JJM can be counted on to carry a team offensively (No evidence he can) -Daniels can avoid getting destroyed physically in the NFL (No evidence yet) -Caleb is not an entitled brat ( No evidence yet) lol |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 15, 2024 19:45:15 GMT -5
if he is there at #13, I believe the Raiders take Penix I think they may try to move up for him, if he is there after pick 8. |
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Post by philskiw on Apr 16, 2024 20:48:47 GMT -5
Watch the bears blow up the draft and take penix
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 16, 2024 21:05:27 GMT -5
Watch the bears blow up the draft and take penix I was thinking that myself. |
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Post by CWTB on Apr 17, 2024 1:53:30 GMT -5
Washington played some of the worse Pass Defenses in College last year. Except for Michigan who was 2nd in the Nation in Passing Yards allowed. The best team Washington faced was Oregon at 65th in Nation at passing yards allowed. Hell Texas was 105th. This is Washington's schedule. www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/washington-huskiesThis is the rankings for teams with Passing Yards Allowed. www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game. Match them up, see if you see what I see. I looked at competition, found it interesting. Put it here sorry. Boise St. 116th rank. Tulsa - 131st Mich. State 98th California 127th Arizona 89th Oregon 65th Arizona St 124th Stanford 133rd USC 93rd Utah 79th Oregon St. 90th Wash. St 85 Texas 105th Michigan 2nd. |
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Post by backbay on Apr 17, 2024 7:45:44 GMT -5
Watch the bears blow up the draft and take penix I was thinking that myself. what are vegas odds that would actually occur. I'm sure there is a bet available in Vegas.
Williams = -10,000 Penix = +15,000
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Post by rkarp on Apr 17, 2024 8:40:06 GMT -5
for me, Penix has an elite trait. his arm. do teams think his other areas needing work are issues they can fix? if they do, then he will go early in the first to one of those teams.
we see LAR, SF, Payton now in Denver, O'Connell in Minn, and others, be able to take a QB and make them fit in their system. I am sure many feel they can make Penix fit and his arm is worth taking the risk.
even last season, many saw Stroud mid first round, yet the Texans took him at #2 believing in Slowey's system, he would be fine.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 17, 2024 16:14:57 GMT -5
Penix did not either. Dillon Johnson ran for 3.0 yds per carry against MI; 2.3 yds per carry against TX. I actually find it weird that JJM is being talked about being a top 5 QB while Blake Corum has a Rd 3 grade (even with a 4.53 on the 40). It seems to me, a lot of organizations draft on hope rather than evidence. Weirdly they ignore evidence in favor of hope. Lamar's evidence was ignored while Trey Lance became the poster boy for hope based drafting. Who knows why this is? Happens all the time. I mean every player is drafted on a measure of hope, I just think in the 1st 3 rounds it needs to be more EVIDENCE based. But right now we are HOPING: -Penix injury label is expired (Some evidence it has) -Maye can fix his erratic decision making(no evidence he can) -JJM can be counted on to carry a team offensively (No evidence he can) -Daniels can avoid getting destroyed physically in the NFL (No evidence yet) -Caleb is not an entitled brat ( No evidence yet) I think we are underestimating the significance of him being a lefty. How does that impact which plays they can implement? |
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Post by backbay on Apr 17, 2024 17:50:00 GMT -5
It seems to me, a lot of organizations draft on hope rather than evidence. Weirdly they ignore evidence in favor of hope. Lamar's evidence was ignored while Trey Lance became the poster boy for hope based drafting. Who knows why this is? Happens all the time. I mean every player is drafted on a measure of hope, I just think in the 1st 3 rounds it needs to be more EVIDENCE based. But right now we are HOPING: -Penix injury label is expired (Some evidence it has) -Maye can fix his erratic decision making(no evidence he can) -JJM can be counted on to carry a team offensively (No evidence he can) -Daniels can avoid getting destroyed physically in the NFL (No evidence yet) -Caleb is not an entitled brat ( No evidence yet) I think we are underestimating the significance of him being a lefty. How does that impact which plays they can implement? Wouldn't everything just be flipped along verticle planevon field? |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 17, 2024 20:42:06 GMT -5
I think we are underestimating the significance of him being a lefty. How does that impact which plays they can implement? Wouldn't everything just be flipped along verticle planevon field? LOL! I do not think it's that simple. Guys here with coaching experience should feel free to correct me. I would think that some of the more involved blocking schemes tend to be executed in one direction for a right-handed QB. Then for a left-handed QB, the left and right side of the OL would have to swap roles. I cannot imagine that the proficiency of execution will be at the same level. Also, I am not sure, but even receivers may have to adjust how they run their routes. That means instead of making instinctive decisons at the flash of a moment, they will have to think. I would think that affects the timing of routes. |
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 17, 2024 21:34:26 GMT -5
Washington played some of the worse Pass Defenses in College last year. Except for Michigan who was 2nd in the Nation in Passing Yards allowed. The best team Washington faced was Oregon at 65th in Nation at passing yards allowed. Hell Texas was 105th. This is Washington's schedule. www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/washington-huskiesThis is the rankings for teams with Passing Yards Allowed. www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game. Match them up, see if you see what I see. I looked at competition, found it interesting. Put it here sorry. Boise St. 116th rank. Tulsa - 131st Mich. State 98th California 127th Arizona 89th Oregon 65th Arizona St 124th Stanford 133rd USC 93rd Utah 79th Oregon St. 90th Wash. St 85 Texas 105th Michigan 2nd. I do not believe you can rank college teams' passing defenses based on the avg passing yards allowed per game, like how it is done in the NFL. Disparities between conferences are so wide. IMO the disparities between conferences are explained more by the style by which teams in the conference prefer to run offenses. Some conferences are just more pass heavy than others. I could be wrong, but for example, I have a hard time believing that Bowling Green's passing defense (ranked #7) is more capable than Oregon's passing defense (ranked 65). The difference in avg yds allowed per game is big too - 56 yds/g. I think BG's low passing yards per game just means that the QBs in the Mid-American Conf are not as prolific as the ones in the PAC-12. Also, the ranks kinda exaggerate the differences. The difference between Alabama (rank 26) and Oregon (rank 65) is 39 rank spots; but yardage-wise, it's just 30 yds per game. And then there is also the question of dinging a QB for facing weaker defenses when we all know they have no control over the schedule. I think a better way to evaluate QBs is by comparing the QB's passing yards against each opponents average passing yards allowed. Michael Penix (note: first number is teams avg passing yards allowed; second number is the QB's passing yds against the team) Boise St 251.9 450 Tulsa 279.8 409 MI St 237.8 473CA 283.3 304 AZ 229.6 363 OR 222.8 302 AZ St 263.2 275 Stanford 298.0 369 USC 255.2 256 UT 224.3 332 OR St 236.2 162 WA St 238.5 204 OR 222.8 319 TX 240.8 430 MI 152.6 255 JJ McCarthy (Compared him because Penix and McCarthy had a common opponent) East Carolina 219.2 280 UNLV 238.7 278 Bowling Green 192.7 143 Rutgers 175.9 214 NE 210.6 156 MN 219.2 219 IN 237.8 222 MI St 237.8 287Purdue 241.2 335 PA St 153.6 60 MD 207.3 141 OH St 147.4 148 IA 172.2 147 AL 188.8 221 WA 263.2 140 |
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Post by texaspat on Apr 17, 2024 21:51:06 GMT -5
So what you’re saying is everything that’s wrong with his throwing mechanics are Belichick’s fault? Don't you realize by now that everything that's wrong with football and the Patriots is the fault of Bill Belichick? Just ask Message Parlor Bob Kraft, ESPN, Mike Florio, MacEnroe Jones, and RKarp!! |
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