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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 7:58:56 GMT -5
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Post by carawaydj on Oct 20, 2021 8:32:27 GMT -5
Lazar is pretty even-keeled. He's been talking about this for a while. We're playing unusually conservative, even by BB's own standards. Some of it you can get and some you can't.
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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 8:38:37 GMT -5
it's an interesting question that BB kind of dances around (I think so) do the Pats analyze the probability in these situations or do they go by BB's gut?
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 8:38:39 GMT -5
Lazar is pretty even-keeled. He's been talking about this for a while. We're playing unusually conservative, even by BB's own standards. Some of it you can get and some you can't. You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him?
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 8:39:29 GMT -5
How 'bout new coaches that are still learning?
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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 8:42:28 GMT -5
Lazar is pretty even-keeled. He's been talking about this for a while. We're playing unusually conservative, even by BB's own standards. Some of it you can get and some you can't. You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him? could be. I thought Sunday the 2 I called out were pretty obvious. why let 1:30 expire at halftime? in OT, it was pretty clear the D was gassed and had not stopped Dak. show some confidence in your offense and go for it. they were 2 1sdt downs from FG range
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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 8:44:59 GMT -5
How 'bout new coaches that are still learning? I would think Ernie Adams studied probability quite extensively. I would think MattP is capable as well. I thought that is why he was brought back the so called up and coming coaches relying heavily on probability. imo, Pats need to step up their analytical game.
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Post by carawaydj on Oct 20, 2021 8:45:33 GMT -5
Lazar is pretty even-keeled. He's been talking about this for a while. We're playing unusually conservative, even by BB's own standards. Some of it you can get and some you can't. You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him? Which is why I said some of it you can get and some you can't. Kneeling with 1:30 left in the half I can't. They must have been conflicted themselves because they called a timeout to keep Dallas from burning more time before they got possession. You don't do that if you plan on kneeling. Not going for it in overtime is 50/50 with me. But I get the criticism. Our defense was absolutely gassed at that point. Hard to be optimistic that they would have stopped Dallas. But I'm sure what you say has something to do with it. And if it does then I assume we'll see the team become more aggressive as the season goes along.
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 8:45:52 GMT -5
You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him? could be. I thought Sunday the 2 I called out were pretty obvious. why let 1:30 expire at halftime? in OT, it was pretty clear the D was gassed and had not stopped Dak. show some confidence in your offense and go for it. they were 2 1sdt downs from FG range Agree. Maybe they don't have the confidence in Mac that some of us do?
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 8:50:50 GMT -5
You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him? Which is why I said some of it you can get and some you can't. Kneeling with 1:30 left in the half I can't. They must have been conflicted themselves because they called a timeout to keep Dallas from burning more time before they got possession. You don't do that if you plan on kneeling. Not going for it in overtime is 50/50 with me. But I get the criticism. Our defense was absolutely gassed at that point. Hard to be optimistic that they would have stopped Dallas. But I'm sure what you say has something to do with it. And if it does then I assume we'll see the team become more aggressive as the season goes along. Good points that are hard to argue with. Still, only six games with a rookie QB and a host of new receivers. They haven't established that one go-to guy yet either. I'm conflicted with that go-to guy thing. I like when the QB spreads the ball around but you still want that one guy who you just know is going to get open. My other thought is that you know the Defense is going to bring the house in those situations and the OL and RB's haven't proven they can give the QB enough time. Not to mention get him killed.
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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 8:58:10 GMT -5
Which is why I said some of it you can get and some you can't. Kneeling with 1:30 left in the half I can't. They must have been conflicted themselves because they called a timeout to keep Dallas from burning more time before they got possession. You don't do that if you plan on kneeling. Not going for it in overtime is 50/50 with me. But I get the criticism. Our defense was absolutely gassed at that point. Hard to be optimistic that they would have stopped Dallas. But I'm sure what you say has something to do with it. And if it does then I assume we'll see the team become more aggressive as the season goes along. Good points that a hard to argue with. Still, only six games with a rookie QB and a host of new receivers. They haven't established that one go-to guy yet either. I'm conflicted with that go-to guy thing. I like when the QB spreads the ball around but you still want that one guy who you just know is going to get open. My other thought is that you know the Defense is going to bring the house in those situations and the OL and RB's haven't proven they can give the QB enough time. Not to mention get him killed. this is where they miss James White big time Stevenson showed something Sunday in the passing game however (receiving, not blocking)
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 9:03:52 GMT -5
Good points that a hard to argue with. Still, only six games with a rookie QB and a host of new receivers. They haven't established that one go-to guy yet either. I'm conflicted with that go-to guy thing. I like when the QB spreads the ball around but you still want that one guy who you just know is going to get open. My other thought is that you know the Defense is going to bring the house in those situations and the OL and RB's haven't proven they can give the QB enough time. Not to mention get him killed. this is where they miss James White big time Stevenson showed something Sunday in the passing game however (receiving, not blocking) Right on both points. I'm not making excuses by any means. We watch the games and wonder why they don't do this or do that and that's understandable. We can discuss the possible reasons but how do we know for sure what the coaching staff knows and the reasons for their decisions? I know it can be frustrating from a fan's perspective watching the games and wondering why they do or don't do something that us as fans would like them to.
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Post by bostonsportsfan111 on Oct 20, 2021 9:09:41 GMT -5
I find it staggering that the best and most experienced head coach in the NFL isn't tying his decision making to 'win probability models constructed by RBSDM.com'. And also that he is being ultra conservative with a quarterback who now has 6 full games of experience. He has the answers to all the question by now, just OPEN THE DAMN PLAYBOOK AND LET MAC GO!!!
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Post by ATJ on Oct 20, 2021 9:18:11 GMT -5
Perhaps that 75 yarder to Bourne is a harbinger of things to come or perhaps it isn't. I suspect that was more a function of what opened up as the play unfolded. We'll see.
Rookie QB, new coaches, new players, all of which have been mentioned above. Some of the decisions do seem to be headscratchers.
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 9:18:37 GMT -5
I find it staggering that the best and most experienced head coach in the NFL isn't tying his decision making to 'win probability models constructed by RBSDM.com'. And also that he is being ultra conservative with a quarterback who now has 6 full games of experience. He has the answers to all the question by now, just OPEN THE DAMN PLAYBOOK AND LET MAC GO!!! I take it you're being sarcastic? I mean, I made this point in a previous post. We don't know how much of the playbook he's absorbed but I'll bet it's only a fraction. Plus, they have a lot of new receivers, backs, TE's and a patched together Oline. I think some and maybe myself included are expecting too much while watching the game. I usually come back to reality shortly after the game though unlike some others.
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Post by bostonsportsfan111 on Oct 20, 2021 9:32:15 GMT -5
I find it staggering that the best and most experienced head coach in the NFL isn't tying his decision making to 'win probability models constructed by RBSDM.com'. And also that he is being ultra conservative with a quarterback who now has 6 full games of experience. He has the answers to all the question by now, just OPEN THE DAMN PLAYBOOK AND LET MAC GO!!! I take it you're being sarcastic? I mean, I made this point in a previous post. We don't know how much of the playbook he's absorbed but I'll bet it's only a fraction. Plus, they have a lot of new receivers, backs, TE's and a patched together Oline. I think some and maybe myself included are expecting too much while watching the game. I usually come back to reality shortly after the game though unlike some others. Yes, I was being sarcastic. I also had high hopes in the preseason that were probably unrealistic. I don't find the team being overly cautious based on what THEY know Mac knows and doesn't know, and what they see in practice with all of the new guys learning this offense and carving out roles. To everything, there is a season. And the first 6 games with a decimated offensive line, almost all new skill position players, and a rookie QB CLEARLY isn't the time to get overly aggressive.
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 9:40:56 GMT -5
I take it you're being sarcastic? I mean, I made this point in a previous post. We don't know how much of the playbook he's absorbed but I'll bet it's only a fraction. Plus, they have a lot of new receivers, backs, TE's and a patched together Oline. I think some and maybe myself included are expecting too much while watching the game. I usually come back to reality shortly after the game though unlike some others. Yes, I was being sarcastic. I also had high hopes in the preseason that were probably unrealistic. I don't find the team being overly cautious based on what THEY know Mac knows and doesn't know, and what they see in practice with all of the new guys learning this offense and carving out roles. To everything, there is a season. And the first 6 games with a decimated offensive line, almost all new skill position players, and a rookie QB CLEARLY isn't the time to get overly aggressive. Thanks. We seem to agree on this. I/we don't really know how much of the playbook Mac knows but add in all the other factors such as the new skill position players and OLine woes, backs failing to pick up blitzes etc. and you have a good reason for not being too aggressive.
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Post by thejuice on Oct 20, 2021 10:00:38 GMT -5
it's an interesting question that BB kind of dances around (I think so) do the Pats analyze the probability in these situations or do they go by BB's gut? Probably a bit of both at least sometimes. I mean wouldn’t you trust that gut more than any other in a coaching decision more often than not? I’m sure he gives a likeLike credence to analytics but he’s going on 5-6 decades in coaching and making his decisions based on what he’s seen in the past. So 80% past experience 19% gut 1% analytics…something like that lol
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Post by salcon on Oct 20, 2021 10:10:36 GMT -5
it's an interesting question that BB kind of dances around (I think so) do the Pats analyze the probability in these situations or do they go by BB's gut? Probably a bit of both at least sometimes. I mean wouldn’t you trust that gut more than any other in a coaching decision more often than not? I’m sure he gives a likeLike credence to analytics but he’s going on 5-6 decades in coaching and making his decisions based on what he’s seen in the past. So 80% past experience 19% gut 1% analytics…something like that lol I'm sure Bill cares about analytics as much as he does about Social Media.
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Post by section136 on Oct 20, 2021 10:16:03 GMT -5
What I'm seeing is that the offense isn't really the problem. The defense can limit points to a certain extent but they absolutely cannot get off the field on 3rd and 4th down. Time of possession is skewed in the opponent's favor to the point that if the offense scores every possession (which is hard - you can't get into any kind of rhythm while on the bench) they would fall short. This is especially true the last two losses.
The offense came out slow (as should have been expected) but has shown improvement almost every step. I should note that they have let Mac throw the ball in his first 6 games more than they let Brady throw in his first 6 games. The performance of those two offenses is pretty similar actually. Brady was 3-3 his first six games (the team was 3-4) and head to head Jones has a slight statistical edge. 2001 was the last time the team had such a large influx of free agents until now. By the end of the year they were 11-5. They started to gel right around this time. The flow of the team has been somewhat similar every season in between...some less so and some very pronounced! Anyone remember "We're on to Cincinnati"? Some here really handled that with dignity and grace!! Trade Tom...Fire Bill...Kraft should sell the team and so on. The team proceeded to go 10-2 and win in February.
The HC will be as aggressive as his team allows him to be and I believe that soon they will be ready. It is not in the best interest of the team's success to go for points with 1:30 left in the half if they can't run the 2 minute offense consistently at a high level...so you take a knee. And if you can't consistently get 3 yards at will...you punt. I think we will see different decisions made in those situations by Thanksgiving. At least that's what history tells me.
This is a collection of talented players - many new to the system. Rookies, free agents and a sprinkling of veterans all mixed up in a system that requires timing and precision to execute on both sides of the ball. To perform as units and not individuals - a big reason for the teams success in the past and definitely not achieved by flipping a switch.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Oct 20, 2021 10:19:34 GMT -5
How 'bout new coaches that are still learning? Learning what? I'm also not aware of any position coaches that are "new" as in first year, unless you count Vinnie Sunseri with the RB's, but that's Ivan Fears operation until he hangs'em up.
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Post by bostonsportsfan111 on Oct 20, 2021 10:22:29 GMT -5
Analysis said bring in Eovaldi in the 9th last night...
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Post by solly on Oct 20, 2021 10:23:35 GMT -5
Analysis said bring in Eovaldi in the 9th last night... It also got them to the ALCS
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Post by rkarp on Oct 20, 2021 10:30:17 GMT -5
this is where they miss James White big time Stevenson showed something Sunday in the passing game however (receiving, not blocking) Right on both points. I'm not making excuses by any means. We watch the games and wonder why they don't do this or do that and that's understandable. We can discuss the possible reasons but how do we know for sure what the coaching staff knows and the reasons for their decisions? I know it can be frustrating from a fan's perspective watching the games and wondering why they do or don't do something that us as fans would like them to. for the away games I of course watch the TV feed. I take notes during the games so I can come here on Monday and argue with you
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Post by bostonts on Oct 20, 2021 11:16:34 GMT -5
You think this has anything to do with having a rookie QB with only six games under his belt who as good as he's looked doesn't know the entire playbook yet? New players on offense who are still learning that playbook? At the same time, trying to bring your rookie along slowly and not put too much on him? could be. I thought Sunday the 2 I called out were pretty obvious. why let 1:30 expire at halftime? in OT, it was pretty clear the D was gassed and had not stopped Dak. show some confidence in your offense and go for it. they were 2 1sdt downs from FG range I tend to agree but you start by figuring out how to defend 3rd and 25. It's really quite surprising to me how poorly that play was defended from all the breakdowns I've looked at. I don't think "give the new coaches a chance" really applies to that. If you don't have someone on the staff that knows how to defend 3rd and 25, then hire someone who does.
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