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Post by prairiemike on Feb 28, 2024 16:28:08 GMT -5
Don't trade out. This will probably be the deepest QB draft right in the middle of a 20 year span. This^ is what all the hype says. All hail the hype! I'll bet you a nickel and bragging rights that no quarterback from this draft turns out to be anything special in the NFL.
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Post by ucmiami on Feb 28, 2024 18:07:30 GMT -5
It is lovely to look at all the stats from college and compare, but everyone of these guys played on a significantly different team with different offensive systems and completely different schedules. Heck Baily Zappe blew these punks away his last year - 6,000 yds, 63 TDs, and only 11 INTs.
When your QB is running for 1100 yds, your RBs aren't likely to get enough carries - his 'lead back' got only 119 carries for 5.5 per - very respectable, while his QB was keeping 135 times.
Williams, Penix, and Nix were playing in the wide open Pac where defense seems to be a second thought, and Nix was playing in a spread system.
JJM played in a pro set - looking like the Pats circa 2001.
Maye - no idea what to call his offensive system, but at 4-4 in the ACC it wasn't particularly effective.
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Post by zenape on Feb 28, 2024 18:23:19 GMT -5
I wouldn't want to play kick the can on the return over the next few years. I would want more of an immediate return (say a 1st, 2nd, 3rd this year), with another 1st next year. This draft is deep enough where we could score big in some huge areas of need in the first several rounds. And we have more areas of need than most unfortunately due to some poor drafting, as well as an over abundance of expiring contracts.
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Post by DaPatriots on Feb 28, 2024 19:36:45 GMT -5
Don't trade out. This will probably be the deepest QB draft right in the middle of a 20 year span. This^ is what all the hype says. All hail the hype! I'll bet you a nickel and bragging rights that no quarterback from this draft turns out to be anything special in the NFL. Deal! Make that TWO NICKELS!
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Feb 28, 2024 20:15:00 GMT -5
This^ is what all the hype says. All hail the hype! I'll bet you a nickel and bragging rights that no quarterback from this draft turns out to be anything special in the NFL. Deal! Make that TWO NICKELS! You got suckered. Expecting any of them turning out to be special is almost unrealistic given how unlikely it is that any of them will turn out to be special. Besides I do not believe in picking a QB in the top 10 only if you think the QB is special. You pick a QB in the top 10 if you think he is good enough to get you in the playoffs. It's a different league now versus back when you had to compete against TB, Manning, Big Ben, Breese, etc. A top 10 QB will get you far in the current league, even win the SB. A more realistic/reasonable bet would be on expectation that any of them would be starters in year 3 (or maybe even top 10 in year 3).
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Post by DaPatriots on Feb 28, 2024 20:25:37 GMT -5
Deal! Make that TWO NICKELS! You got suckered. Expecting any of them turning out to be special is almost unrealistic given how unlikely it is that any of them will turn out to be special. Besides I do not believe in picking a QB in the top 10 only if you think the QB is special. You pick a QB in the top 10 if you think he is good enough to get you in the playoffs. It's a different league now versus back when you had to compete against TB, Manning, Big Ben, Breese, etc. A top 10 QB will get you far in the current league, even win the SB. A more realistic/reasonable bet would be on expectation that any of them would be starters in year 3 (or maybe even top 10 in year 3). Special to me is pro bowl. Not MVP. So I guess I should have ironed that out 1st. I don't want to lose my 2 nickels! I think in 3 years this draft will yield 5 starters at QB. Meaning 5 will start an NFL game. Too conservative?
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Feb 29, 2024 2:39:18 GMT -5
You got suckered. Expecting any of them turning out to be special is almost unrealistic given how unlikely it is that any of them will turn out to be special. Besides I do not believe in picking a QB in the top 10 only if you think the QB is special. You pick a QB in the top 10 if you think he is good enough to get you in the playoffs. It's a different league now versus back when you had to compete against TB, Manning, Big Ben, Breese, etc. A top 10 QB will get you far in the current league, even win the SB. A more realistic/reasonable bet would be on expectation that any of them would be starters in year 3 (or maybe even top 10 in year 3). Special to me is pro bowl. Not MVP. So I guess I should have ironed that out 1st. I don't want to lose my 2 nickels! I think in 3 years this draft will yield 5 starters at QB. Meaning 5 will start an NFL game. Too conservative? Mac was that in 2021. That is too low a bar.
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Post by prairiemike on Feb 29, 2024 3:02:16 GMT -5
I find myself intrigued by this "not-getting-sacked" stat. Everyone loves Runaround Sue, but surely, somewhere -- even as we speak -- some wonk is hard at work detailing the differences between "protection" didn't-get-sacked and "escapability" didn't-get-sacked. Or maybe not.
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Post by thejuice on Feb 29, 2024 10:13:54 GMT -5
You got suckered. Expecting any of them turning out to be special is almost unrealistic given how unlikely it is that any of them will turn out to be special. Besides I do not believe in picking a QB in the top 10 only if you think the QB is special. You pick a QB in the top 10 if you think he is good enough to get you in the playoffs. It's a different league now versus back when you had to compete against TB, Manning, Big Ben, Breese, etc. A top 10 QB will get you far in the current league, even win the SB. A more realistic/reasonable bet would be on expectation that any of them would be starters in year 3 (or maybe even top 10 in year 3). Special to me is pro bowl. Not MVP. So I guess I should have ironed that out 1st. I don't want to lose my 2 nickels! I think in 3 years this draft will yield 5 starters at QB. Meaning 5 will start an NFL game. Too conservative? special is in no way pro bowl. thats just a little above average these days. special is consistent all pro player at the least.
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Post by DaPatriots on Feb 29, 2024 10:37:45 GMT -5
Special to me is pro bowl. Not MVP. So I guess I should have ironed that out 1st. I don't want to lose my 2 nickels! I think in 3 years this draft will yield 5 starters at QB. Meaning 5 will start an NFL game. Too conservative? special is in no way pro bowl. thats just a little above average these days. special is consistent all pro player at the least. 6 QB's out of 32 go to the pro bowl. Thats almost 1 out of 5. Why isnt that special? Each QB got picked ahead of 24 other quarterbacks. Mac was in the top 50% of quarterbacks as a rookie. The potential is there, just not for this fanbase.
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 19, 2024 15:41:49 GMT -5
Bo Nix had 45 TD'S to 3 INT'S. 5 sacks to over 470 dropbacks. Dude is a slippery eel!!! That's 1 sack for every 94 dropbacks!!!! He is technically the best reader of defense by this stat! 77% completions for over 4500 yards. Rushed for 6 TD'S and over 230 yards. His RB only had 11 TD'S. 9.6 yards per pass to Penix 8.8. 77% completions to Penix 65%. Too many short throws? One dimensional passer? What is it? Super efficient QB, cannot argue THAT! Why isn't he ranked higher? Just want to remember these stats in this thread with draft approaching
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 19, 2024 16:11:21 GMT -5
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Post by texaspat on Apr 19, 2024 17:39:35 GMT -5
Using the 49ers 2021 trade up for Trey Lance as a barometer, I would want another 1st rounder. And, if the QB available at #3 is someone I believe is a franchise guy, and I'm not certain he'll be available at #13, I don't make the trade, regardless. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I wish that the Patriots had rolled dice and parted with a late round pick to acquire Justin Fields - just as the Steelers did. That would have made a trade for the 3rd overall pick easier to swallow.
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Post by muzwell on Apr 20, 2024 0:03:11 GMT -5
Using the 49ers 2021 trade up for Trey Lance as a barometer, I would want another 1st rounder. And, if the QB available at #3 is someone I believe is a franchise guy, and I'm not certain he'll be available at #13, I don't make the trade, regardless. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I wish that the Patriots had rolled dice and parted with a late round pick to acquire Justin Fields - just as the Steelers did. That would have made a trade for the 3rd overall pick easier to swallow. Not me. He’ll be available next year for nothing. I don’t see it with this guy.
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Post by wazzu on Apr 20, 2024 6:52:57 GMT -5
I wish that the Patriots had rolled dice and parted with a late round pick to acquire Justin Fields - just as the Steelers did. That would have made a trade for the 3rd overall pick easier to swallow. Not me. He’ll be available next year for nothing. I don’t see it with this guy. Absolutely agree.
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 20, 2024 7:47:26 GMT -5
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 20, 2024 7:56:42 GMT -5
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Post by muzwell on Apr 20, 2024 8:03:37 GMT -5
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Post by rkarp on Apr 20, 2024 8:08:42 GMT -5
I wish that the Patriots had rolled dice and parted with a late round pick to acquire Justin Fields - just as the Steelers did. That would have made a trade for the 3rd overall pick easier to swallow. Not me. He’ll be available next year for nothing. I don’t see it with this guy. again and again, it's the coaching silly Fields undeniably has nfl QB abilities. can the coaches get it out of him the "gamble" teams could have taken this season, and Pitts did, is that their staff can get Fields playing better. would the Pats have traded a lower rd choice to gamble that their staff could get Fields to the next level in his development?
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Post by muzwell on Apr 20, 2024 8:19:08 GMT -5
Not me. He’ll be available next year for nothing. I don’t see it with this guy. again and again, it's the coaching silly Fields undeniably has nfl QB abilities. can the coaches get it out of him the "gamble" teams could have taken this season, and Pitts did, is that their staff can get Fields playing better. would the Pats have traded a lower rd choice to gamble that their staff could get Fields to the next level in his development? I’m not going to defend the collaborative, I think they’re clueless. But, the entire league could have done what you suggest. I mean the Raiders would rather roll with Aidan O’Connell and Sean Payton with Jarret Stidham. The guy is a running back playing quarterback. He’s Taysom Hill. He will be available after this season with no trade compensation. Pittsburgh’s quarterback room is a dysfunctional disaster waiting to happen if you ask me.
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 20, 2024 8:45:37 GMT -5
Drake has the tools. That's why he was my early favorite. I discovered upon further review that his decision making is suspect and in need of a TON OF WORK. And he maye (pun intended) never get there because it is a mental trait of antsyness (for lack of a better term/ probably not a real word lol) Its VERY HARD to coach POISE. You either have it or you don't! Right Mac Jones? Edit: Did you watch the 2nd half?
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Post by rkarp on Apr 20, 2024 8:53:58 GMT -5
Drake has the tools. That's why he was my early favorite. I discovered upon further review that his decision making is suspect and in need of a TON OF WORK. And he maye (pun intended) never get there because it is a mental trait of antsyness (for lack of a better term/ probably not a real word lol) Its VERY HARD to coach POISE. You either have it or you don't! Right Mac Jones? I think its confidence not poise Will the OL hold up? Will the target get open? Maye had it 2 years ago more so than last year. Mac always had it in college Had it year 1 Oh well
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Post by DaPatriots on Apr 20, 2024 8:57:20 GMT -5
Drake has the tools. That's why he was my early favorite. I discovered upon further review that his decision making is suspect and in need of a TON OF WORK. And he maye (pun intended) never get there because it is a mental trait of antsyness (for lack of a better term/ probably not a real word lol) Its VERY HARD to coach POISE. You either have it or you don't! Right Mac Jones? I think its confidence not poise Will the OL hold up? Will the target get open? Maye had it 2 years ago more so than last year. Mac always had it in college Had it year 1 Oh well In the 2nd half of that video you see Maye's alarmingly bad decisions higlighted perfectly.
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Post by Wozzy on Apr 20, 2024 9:19:47 GMT -5
I think its confidence not poise Will the OL hold up? Will the target get open? Maye had it 2 years ago more so than last year. Mac always had it in college Had it year 1 Oh well Mac played on a college superteam, he rarely got rushed never mind sacked. He threw to a gaggle of 1st and 2nd round draft pick weapons and the Alabama defense got him the ball back at a high rate with forced turnovers. Maye made the most of a terrible situation, his line wasn’t good, his weapons outside of one WR who got hurt most of the season were poor. Even the coaching got panned at NC, people said Drake should have entered the portal and transferred to a better school but he toughed it out. Back in 2021 I said I wouldn’t penalize Mac the prospect for playing on a college superteam, but time has adjusted my process. Maye gets a bump for physical tools and a bad team, Mac didn’t have many tools. Apples/oranges…
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 20, 2024 11:03:33 GMT -5
Drake has the tools. That's why he was my early favorite. I discovered upon further review that his decision making is suspect and in need of a TON OF WORK. And he maye (pun intended) never get there because it is a mental trait of antsyness (for lack of a better term/ probably not a real word lol) Its VERY HARD to coach POISE. You either have it or you don't! Right Mac Jones? Edit: Did you watch the 2nd half? I watched both videos. Based on Colt's comments, Penix is a much better QB.
Asked be Gruden: Penix or JJM?
Colt was almost embarrassed to admit: "if you look at the tape, I got Penix."
People seem desperate to anoint JJM and Drake the better QB, but when real NFL QBs analyze the tape (I've watched tons of tape myself), there is no comparison. Penix is the better QB in almost every way except scrambling.
One of the things people are afraid of about Penix is his unorthodox throwing style and inconsistent feet (they all have inconsistent feet). If I'm his NFL coach, I look to Aarong Rodgers and his development.
Rodgers had a similar flick-of-the-wrist throwing style coming out of Cal.
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