|
Post by jamesbrady2020 on Feb 23, 2024 10:05:13 GMT -5
I wouldn't if I believed in Daniels or Maye (and I believe in Daniels) but this would be a pretty damn good haul if you didn't believe in either QB.
|
|
|
Post by mbeaulieu07 on Feb 23, 2024 10:10:31 GMT -5
Using the 49ers 2021 trade up for Trey Lance as a barometer, I would want another 1st rounder. And, if the QB available at #3 is someone I believe is a franchise guy, and I'm not certain he'll be available at #13, I don't make the trade, regardless.
49ers get:
2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get:
2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)
|
|
|
Post by jamesbrady2020 on Feb 23, 2024 10:25:52 GMT -5
Using the 49ers 2021 trade up for Trey Lance as a barometer, I would want another 1st rounder. And, if the QB available at #3 is someone I believe is a franchise guy, and I'm not certain he'll be available at #13, I don't make the trade, regardless. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I think the Raiders offer is exactly the same as the 49ers unless I'm mistaken? 3 1sts including this year and a 3rd But I agree that you don't make the trade if you believe Daniels or Maye is the guy anyway. Just hypothetical.
|
|
|
Post by ATJ on Feb 23, 2024 10:33:18 GMT -5
If the Pats believe the guy at #3 is THE GUY then absolutely not.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 23, 2024 10:37:51 GMT -5
Don't trade out. This will probably be the deepest QB draft right in the middle of a 20 year span.
|
|
|
Post by mbeaulieu07 on Feb 23, 2024 10:44:28 GMT -5
Using the 49ers 2021 trade up for Trey Lance as a barometer, I would want another 1st rounder. And, if the QB available at #3 is someone I believe is a franchise guy, and I'm not certain he'll be available at #13, I don't make the trade, regardless. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I think the Raiders offer is exactly the same as the 49ers unless I'm mistaken? 3 1sts including this year and a 3rd But I agree that you don't make the trade if you believe Daniels or Maye is the guy anyway. Just hypothetical. You're right, I read it wrong.
|
|
|
Post by rkarp on Feb 23, 2024 11:23:35 GMT -5
I think they could get more I would also take a 2024 2nd round pick more than a 2026 1st round pick
|
|
|
Post by jamesbrady2020 on Feb 23, 2024 13:50:26 GMT -5
I think they could get more I would also take a 2024 2nd round pick more than a 2026 1st round pick Its a tough call. I think it depends on the 2nd for me. I don't know where the Raiders 2nd round pick is, but its probably in the middle of the 2nd round and I don't love that spot. If you told me they had a 2nd round pick at the top of the round, then I think there's a good argument for passing on the extra 1st.
|
|
|
Post by thejuice on Feb 23, 2024 14:14:42 GMT -5
If the Pats believe the guy at #3 is THE GUY then absolutely not. Exactly…and if you don’t…you take this trade all day every day!
|
|
|
Post by mthurl on Feb 23, 2024 14:21:19 GMT -5
Like others have said, IF the player they really value is sitting there at three, you have to pass and just take the guy. However I don’t think that’s going to halogen, I think the player they truly value will be gone (Maye or Williams), and that leaves them with MHJ or Daniels. I’ve already stated that I don’t think Daniels is worthy of the 3rd pick and fear he has bust written all over him. As for MHJ, someone else made a good point that there are two other very viable options at WRthat we could get by trading back, BUT I imagine WR is not really full blast on the radar.
Bottom line is this…if Maye and Williams are gone, and I think they will be, then yeah I’d consider trading back for three first round picks, especially from the Raiders because you know they’ll suck. But if we get offers for a first and a second - or something under market value - I tell them to pound sand.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 23, 2024 14:35:54 GMT -5
Like others have said, IF the player they really value is sitting there at three, you have to pass and just take the guy. However I don’t think that’s going to halogen, I think the player they truly value will be gone (Maye or Williams), and that leaves them with MHJ or Daniels. I’ve already stated that I don’t think Daniels is worthy of the 3rd pick and fear he has bust written all over him. As for MHJ, someone else made a good point that there are two other very viable options at WRthat we could get by trading back, BUT I imagine WR is not really full blast on the radar. Bottom line is this…if Maye and Williams are gone, and I think they will be, then yeah I’d consider trading back for three first round picks, especially from the Raiders because you know they’ll suck. But if we get offers for a first and a second - or something under market value - I tell them to pound sand. I don't know why you fear Daniels. He is listed as 6 pounds lighter than Randall Cunningham. Not significant. Couple that with the safest QB rules in NFL history, he should be all right.
|
|
|
Post by wazzu on Feb 23, 2024 14:39:20 GMT -5
Like others have said, IF the player they really value is sitting there at three, you have to pass and just take the guy. However I don’t think that’s going to halogen, I think the player they truly value will be gone (Maye or Williams), and that leaves them with MHJ or Daniels. I’ve already stated that I don’t think Daniels is worthy of the 3rd pick and fear he has bust written all over him. As for MHJ, someone else made a good point that there are two other very viable options at WRthat we could get by trading back, BUT I imagine WR is not really full blast on the radar. Bottom line is this…if Maye and Williams are gone, and I think they will be, then yeah I’d consider trading back for three first round picks, especially from the Raiders because you know they’ll suck. But if we get offers for a first and a second - or something under market value - I tell them to pound sand. Agree.
|
|
|
Post by fisher on Feb 23, 2024 15:49:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't if I believed in Daniels or Maye (and I believe in Daniels) but this would be a pretty damn good haul if you didn't believe in either QB. Need a choice like a 2 or 3 and if they have signed Field to a 2 or 3 yr contract…..in not , Hell no
|
|
|
Post by seattlepat2016 on Feb 23, 2024 17:45:33 GMT -5
I wouldn't if I believed in Daniels or Maye (and I believe in Daniels) but this would be a pretty damn good haul if you didn't believe in either QB. YES! YES! YES! I definitely would! I am not fixated on any one QB this year. I think the top 6 QBs are all good enough to be coached up into a top 10 QB. If there was one year in 20 when you could be confident about taking QB4 or QB5 in Rd 1, 2024 is it. This will not happen again. That haul of picks will guarantee you have at least two Rd 1 picks in the two subsequent years. That is a lot of ammo in the next couple of years to course correct and reload for any misses, without having to tank a season for higher picks. If you hit it on all picks, then you should be in position for another dynasty.
|
|
|
Post by mthurl on Feb 24, 2024 7:24:19 GMT -5
Like others have said, IF the player they really value is sitting there at three, you have to pass and just take the guy. However I don’t think that’s going to halogen, I think the player they truly value will be gone (Maye or Williams), and that leaves them with MHJ or Daniels. I’ve already stated that I don’t think Daniels is worthy of the 3rd pick and fear he has bust written all over him. As for MHJ, someone else made a good point that there are two other very viable options at WRthat we could get by trading back, BUT I imagine WR is not really full blast on the radar. Bottom line is this…if Maye and Williams are gone, and I think they will be, then yeah I’d consider trading back for three first round picks, especially from the Raiders because you know they’ll suck. But if we get offers for a first and a second - or something under market value - I tell them to pound sand. I don't know why you fear Daniels. He is listed as 6 pounds lighter than Randall Cunningham. Not significant. Couple that with the safest QB rules in NFL history, he should be all right. Because I don’t think he’s a great quarterback (throwing the ball and seeing the field). And I’m never enamored with just running QB’s…I need more than just that. I think Daniels throws an amazing fade to the end zone, and sometimes he looks really good throwing some passes, but other times he looks like a totally different guy out there throwing. And that worries me A LOT. As for his size, I don’t pay all that much attention to weight, I pay attention to the eyeball test. He looks like a stick. I said the same when they drafted Tyquan Thornton. Stick. Someone posted a video of him deadlifting a ton of weight in the gym, it doesn’t matter, he’s a stick that breaks in a warm summer breeze. Daniels gets tossed around so violently when tackled that I don’t think I’ve ever seen any player (college or pro) get thrown around so effortlessly in my life, and that includes even Tyquan Thornton. So I have a ton of concerns with Daniels…without even mentioning that he’s a one hit wonder throwing to some of the best talent in college football. If I’m wrong I’ll gladly admit and revisit. It wouldn’t be the first time. And if we draft him I’ll route for him, I’ll seek out all the positives (like I briefly did with Mac Jones, trying to convince myself that we didn’t just draft the weakest armed QB in the NFL).
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 24, 2024 9:15:49 GMT -5
I don't know why you fear Daniels. He is listed as 6 pounds lighter than Randall Cunningham. Not significant. Couple that with the safest QB rules in NFL history, he should be all right. Because I don’t think he’s a great quarterback (throwing the ball and seeing the field). And I’m never enamored with just running QB’s…I need more than just that. I think Daniels throws an amazing fade to the end zone, and sometimes he looks really good throwing some passes, but other times he looks like a totally different guy out there throwing. And that worries me A LOT. As for his size, I don’t pay all that much attention to weight, I pay attention to the eyeball test. He looks like a stick. I said the same when they drafted Tyquan Thornton. Stick. Someone posted a video of him deadlifting a ton of weight in the gym, it doesn’t matter, he’s a stick that breaks in a warm summer breeze. Daniels gets tossed around so violently when tackled that I don’t think I’ve ever seen any player (college or pro) get thrown around so effortlessly in my life, and that includes even Tyquan Thornton. So I have a ton of concerns with Daniels…without even mentioning that he’s a one hit wonder throwing to some of the best talent in college football. If I’m wrong I’ll gladly admit and revisit. It wouldn’t be the first time. And if we draft him I’ll route for him, I’ll seek out all the positives (like I briefly did with Mac Jones, trying to convince myself that we didn’t just draft the weakest armed QB in the NFL). What I've noticed about him is, he knows when to run and to go down for the most part. He avoided major injury while rushing for over 1100 yards and dropping back to throw over 3800. He threw 40 TD'S to 4 INT'S!!! He ran for 10 TD'S. If he is there at 3 we will be nearly as lucky as when we drafted Tom Brady! Yes he had playmakers catching and getting open, but they weren't always wide open. He had to be accurate and was 9.5/10. Meanwhile, he was dealing with 2 RB'S that couldn't gain 1000 yards PUT TOGETHER! He is a star. He took 22 sacks on more than 327 drop backs. That's a sack every 15 drop backs. Not horrible. Would have been worse if he didn't run 135 times. I would guess that he prevented at least 100 sacks by escaping. Significant!!! Now Penix only took 11 sacks in over 555 dropbacks. THAT'S 1 SACK EVERY 51 DROPBACKS!!!!! That's because he is the best defense reader/ decision maker in this draft. He only tried to escape 35 times for 8 yards! Caleb had more rushing TD'S than Daniels while amassing 1000 fewer yards. So he was strictly a redzone rusher (11 TD'S). Threw 30 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 3600 yards. Took 33 sack in over 388 dropbacks. That's 1 sack every 12 dropbacks! HORRIBLE!!!! Maye had 24 TD's to 9 INT'S for over 3600 yards. 9 rushing TD'S on 450 yards. 29 sacks on over 425 dropbacks. 1 sack every 15 dropbacks. Same as Daniels. Maye had the benefit of an RB that gained over 1500 yards and 15 TD'S. Which is big. Cut into his TD'S passing for sure. But Dillon Johnson rushed for 16 and Penix still threw 36. Which is better than 24 by a mile. Daniels handed it off for 22 TD'S and still threw 40! So Maye not as effective as those guys in the air. Caleb with only 6 more passing TD'S than Maye on 22 hand off TD'S. JJM had 22 TD'S to 4 INT'S for just under 3000 yards. He had just 3 rushing TD'S for all of his speed.(Penix rushed for 3 TD'S and only gained 8 yards all season. Lol) JJM had 19 sacks in over 332 dropbacks. 1 sack every 12 dropbacks. That's Caleb Williams style! These guys are not seeing the defense or making the right play, OR BOTH! Throw it away, gottdammit! And here we have MPJ with 1 sack every 50 passes going behind these fools. SMH. TAKING SACKS IS WHY BLEDSOE LOST HIS JOB TO BRADY!!! (Supposedly, stats don't back it up) JJM had the benefit of an RB that rushed for 27 TD'S. Best ground game in all of CFB. Still couldn’t stop taking sacks? Had 10 times the protection of Caleb Williams in my estimation. So, everybody has warts. Look for the fewest. Penix does not have the fewest. Daniels does. Penix is high risk high reward imo. Caleb too. I like the guy who reads the defense best, and makes the best decisions after doing it. These other guys may get there, but Penix is already there mentally. Joe Milton had 20 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 2800 yards ( similar to JJM but rushed for 4 more TD'S than he did). Rushed for 300 yards. (JJM rushed for 200) 16 sacks on over 354 dropbacks. 1 SACK EVERY 22 DROPBACKS???!!!! (He's reading the defense and making great choices) He's the only guy meeting Penix half way! Underrated LIKE I SAID BEFORE!!! Round 2 steal!!! ALL DAY!!!CHUMPS! (Playful teasing, please don't be offended. Lol) Oh, MPJ threw 36 TD'S to 11 INT'S. Threw for over 4900 yards.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 24, 2024 10:08:49 GMT -5
I just found out Joe Montana had 1 sack every 12 dropbacks in 1989 when they won the Super Bowl.
So, I guess its not the end of the world.
Tom Brady took 1 sack every 10 dropbacks in 2001 when we won the Super Bowl.
Drew Bledsoe only took 1 sack every 13 dropbacks in 2001. Stats don't back up the Dynasty claim of Bledsoe taking more sacks than Brady!
1 sack every 12 dropbacks in 2000.
It's looking like BB just preferred the younger much cheaper option when he turned to Brady. Bledsoe was still the better QB statistically.
So Penix is a special weapon taking 1 sack every 51 passes.
Joe Milton is seeing the field at 1 sack every 22 dropbacks. ( And that is only his 1st year as a starter!)
Playmakers at QB.
Mahomes took 1 sack every 22 dropbacks in 2016 for Texas Tech.
Mac Jones was *GULP* 1 sack for every 30 dropbacks at Alabama! Mac was 1 sack every 16 passes last year and was basically ineffective. Increase his pass protection and that player efficiency returns.
Mahomes was still 1 sack every 22 dropbacks this year.
|
|
|
Post by philskiw on Feb 24, 2024 11:29:21 GMT -5
We better not blow this pick.
|
|
|
Post by thejuice on Feb 24, 2024 12:25:24 GMT -5
We better not blow this pick. pretty much the key. if you stay there, better get a guy thats going to be really good for you for a decade at whateer position. if not, trade down for a haul of picks and then hit on most of those.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 24, 2024 14:20:19 GMT -5
Bo Nix had 45 TD'S to 3 INT'S. 5 sacks to over 470 dropbacks.
Dude is a slippery eel!!!
That's 1 sack for every 94 dropbacks!!!!
He is technically the best reader of defense by this stat!
77% completions for over 4500 yards. Rushed for 6 TD'S and over 230 yards.
His RB only had 11 TD'S.
9.6 yards per pass to Penix 8.8.
77% completions to Penix 65%.
Too many short throws? One dimensional passer?
What is it?
Super efficient QB, cannot argue THAT!
Why isn't he ranked higher?
|
|
|
Post by mthurl on Feb 24, 2024 15:52:12 GMT -5
Because I don’t think he’s a great quarterback (throwing the ball and seeing the field). And I’m never enamored with just running QB’s…I need more than just that. I think Daniels throws an amazing fade to the end zone, and sometimes he looks really good throwing some passes, but other times he looks like a totally different guy out there throwing. And that worries me A LOT. As for his size, I don’t pay all that much attention to weight, I pay attention to the eyeball test. He looks like a stick. I said the same when they drafted Tyquan Thornton. Stick. Someone posted a video of him deadlifting a ton of weight in the gym, it doesn’t matter, he’s a stick that breaks in a warm summer breeze. Daniels gets tossed around so violently when tackled that I don’t think I’ve ever seen any player (college or pro) get thrown around so effortlessly in my life, and that includes even Tyquan Thornton. So I have a ton of concerns with Daniels…without even mentioning that he’s a one hit wonder throwing to some of the best talent in college football. If I’m wrong I’ll gladly admit and revisit. It wouldn’t be the first time. And if we draft him I’ll route for him, I’ll seek out all the positives (like I briefly did with Mac Jones, trying to convince myself that we didn’t just draft the weakest armed QB in the NFL). What I've noticed about him is, he knows when to run and to go down for the most part. He avoided major injury while rushing for over 1100 yards and dropping back to throw over 3800. He threw 40 TD'S to 4 INT'S!!! He ran for 10 TD'S. If he is there at 3 we will be nearly as lucky as when we drafted Tom Brady! Yes he had playmakers catching and getting open, but they weren't always wide open. He had to be accurate and was 9.5/10. Meanwhile, he was dealing with 2 RB'S that couldn't gain 1000 yards PUT TOGETHER! He is a star. He took 22 sacks on more than 327 drop backs. That's a sack every 15 drop backs. Not horrible. Would have been worse if he didn't run 135 times. I would guess that he prevented at least 100 sacks by escaping. Significant!!! Now Penix only took 11 sacks in over 555 dropbacks. THAT'S 1 SACK EVERY 51 DROPBACKS!!!!! That's because he is the best defense reader/ decision maker in this draft. He only tried to escape 35 times for 8 yards! Caleb had more rushing TD'S than Daniels while amassing 1000 fewer yards. So he was strictly a redzone rusher (11 TD'S). Threw 30 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 3600 yards. Took 33 sack in over 388 dropbacks. That's 1 sack every 12 dropbacks! HORRIBLE!!!! Maye had 24 TD's to 9 INT'S for over 3600 yards. 9 rushing TD'S on 450 yards. 29 sacks on over 425 dropbacks. 1 sack every 15 dropbacks. Same as Daniels. Maye had the benefit of an RB that gained over 1500 yards and 15 TD'S. Which is big. Cut into his TD'S passing for sure. But Dillon Johnson rushed for 16 and Penix still threw 36. Which is better than 24 by a mile. Daniels handed it off for 22 TD'S and still threw 40! So Maye not as effective as those guys in the air. Caleb with only 6 more passing TD'S than Maye on 22 hand off TD'S. JJM had 22 TD'S to 4 INT'S for just under 3000 yards. He had just 3 rushing TD'S for all of his speed.(Penix rushed for 3 TD'S and only gained 8 yards all season. Lol) JJM had 19 sacks in over 332 dropbacks. 1 sack every 12 dropbacks. That's Caleb Williams style! These guys are not seeing the defense or making the right play, OR BOTH! Throw it away, gottdammit! And here we have MPJ with 1 sack every 50 passes going behind these fools. SMH. TAKING SACKS IS WHY BLEDSOE LOST HIS JOB TO BRADY!!! (Supposedly, stats don't back it up) JJM had the benefit of an RB that rushed for 27 TD'S. Best ground game in all of CFB. Still couldn’t stop taking sacks? Had 10 times the protection of Caleb Williams in my estimation. So, everybody has warts. Look for the fewest. Penix does not have the fewest. Daniels does. Penix is high risk high reward imo. Caleb too. I like the guy who reads the defense best, and makes the best decisions after doing it. These other guys may get there, but Penix is already there mentally. Joe Milton had 20 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 2800 yards ( similar to JJM but rushed for 4 more TD'S than he did). Rushed for 300 yards. (JJM rushed for 200) 16 sacks on over 354 dropbacks. 1 SACK EVERY 22 DROPBACKS???!!!! (He's reading the defense and making great choices) He's the only guy meeting Penix half way! Underrated LIKE I SAID BEFORE!!! Round 2 steal!!! ALL DAY!!!CHUMPS! (Playful teasing, please don't be offended. Lol) Oh, MPJ threw 36 TD'S to 11 INT'S. Threw for over 4900 yards. Nice post, pretty thorough. Do I agree with everything? No, but you make me want to take some more looks at Daniels - plus everyone seems to be in love with him - but I’ll tell yeah, I probably am nitpicking too much, but I just don’t see the big deal as much as most. But I could be wrong 100%. I’ll take another look. As for Penix, no idea if he’ll amount to anything of substance, BUT I do know one thing…that kid can sling it like few can. His ball placement is unreal. His arm is unreal. If that were everything he’d be the number 1 pick in the draft, but he’s got a lot of things to answer for…age, injury, playing behind the best offensive line in college, not running well, not improvising, seeming to breakdown under any sort or pressure (he is a much different passer under pressure IMO). But he is intriguing.
|
|
|
Post by seattlepat2016 on Feb 24, 2024 21:03:26 GMT -5
Because I don’t think he’s a great quarterback (throwing the ball and seeing the field). And I’m never enamored with just running QB’s…I need more than just that. I think Daniels throws an amazing fade to the end zone, and sometimes he looks really good throwing some passes, but other times he looks like a totally different guy out there throwing. And that worries me A LOT. As for his size, I don’t pay all that much attention to weight, I pay attention to the eyeball test. He looks like a stick. I said the same when they drafted Tyquan Thornton. Stick. Someone posted a video of him deadlifting a ton of weight in the gym, it doesn’t matter, he’s a stick that breaks in a warm summer breeze. Daniels gets tossed around so violently when tackled that I don’t think I’ve ever seen any player (college or pro) get thrown around so effortlessly in my life, and that includes even Tyquan Thornton. So I have a ton of concerns with Daniels…without even mentioning that he’s a one hit wonder throwing to some of the best talent in college football. If I’m wrong I’ll gladly admit and revisit. It wouldn’t be the first time. And if we draft him I’ll route for him, I’ll seek out all the positives (like I briefly did with Mac Jones, trying to convince myself that we didn’t just draft the weakest armed QB in the NFL). What I've noticed about him is, he knows when to run and to go down for the most part. He avoided major injury while rushing for over 1100 yards and dropping back to throw over 3800. He threw 40 TD'S to 4 INT'S!!! He ran for 10 TD'S. If he is there at 3 we will be nearly as lucky as when we drafted Tom Brady! Yes he had playmakers catching and getting open, but they weren't always wide open. He had to be accurate and was 9.5/10. Meanwhile, he was dealing with 2 RB'S that couldn't gain 1000 yards PUT TOGETHER! He is a star. He took 22 sacks on more than 327 drop backs. That's a sack every 15 drop backs. Not horrible. Would have been worse if he didn't run 135 times. People say a lot of things why they do not like Daniels, but I feel like the really true reason they do not like him is that he is skinny. He does not fit in a sport for big men. Some may say other reasons, but that is at the core. But is he really too skinny? Interesting you mentioend Tom Brady above. TB weighed 210 lbs at the combine - that's really skinny for someone standing at 6-4. I also think people overrate the impact of his receivers while underrating the impact of not having a good OL and running game. One of things that really strike me is that he is consistently good. When you look at his game logs (taking away the first week), you see that his worst performances are still really good. I did not look at it until recently, but when I saw this, I thought it was consistent with the composure I noticed he displayed regardless of how bad the situation is.
I would guess that he prevented at least 100 sacks by escaping. Significant!!! Now Penix only took 11 sacks in over 555 dropbacks. THAT'S 1 SACK EVERY 51 DROPBACKS!!!!! That's because he is the best defense reader/ decision maker in this draft. He only tried to escape 35 times for 8 yards! IMO Penix's OL was overrated. It wa snot the best in college. MI's OL was the best, but way underrated. And I always go back to his pressure-sack ratio which was the among the best if not the best.
Also, IMO he has the best arm. When watching his highlights, look at how he quickly he whips his arm, or pass the ball with short but really wuick flick of the wrist. The watch videos of Mahomes in college. In Penix's case, people ding him separately for his past injuries and age. But they should not because it's one and the same. He stayed longer in college because he got injured earlier in his college career. Ultimately, he did not miss a game in the last two years.
One of the stats that really stand out to me is that he threw more than 500 pass attempts in each of his last two years in college. There are two notable NFL QBs who threw that many passes at least on the last year in college - Mahomes and Burrow. People underrate throwing many many passes and being successful at it. It is not just about the physical benefits of the reps. For me what's more important is the mental aspect of many reps of reading pre-snap, setting protections, feeling pressure, moving in the pocket, knowing where to pass, timing the pass, knowing appropriate trajectory (how lofted and how fast the ball needs to be) and actually executing it. The high pass attempt numbers is also good in statistical terms, as you probably could more safely assume that the law of large numbers has taken hold - i.e., the stats you observe more closely mirror the truth.
Caleb had more rushing TD'S than Daniels while amassing 1000 fewer yards. So he was strictly a redzone rusher (11 TD'S). Threw 30 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 3600 yards. Took 33 sack in over 388 dropbacks. That's 1 sack every 12 dropbacks! HORRIBLE!!!! Caleb is to me the second most difficult to assess. The biggest concern on him is whether he can play within structure. I think the concern is legit. That said it was the concern with Mahomes as well. I think the concern about the nail polish thing and going to his mom and crying after a loss, is just noise. He is eccentric. I am okay with that. But I do think it is real enough to evaluators on some teams that he could drop down from pick 1 if he disappoints during throwing drills at the Combine. Anyhow, he too can do the wrist flick that Mahomes does. He too has a quick release. And of the top 6 QBs in this class, I believe he is the best at throwing the ball while scrambling towards the left sideline.
Maye had 24 TD's to 9 INT'S for over 3600 yards. 9 rushing TD'S on 450 yards. 29 sacks on over 425 dropbacks. 1 sack every 15 dropbacks. Same as Daniels. Maye had the benefit of an RB that gained over 1500 yards and 15 TD'S. Which is big. Cut into his TD'S passing for sure. But Dillon Johnson rushed for 16 and Penix still threw 36. Which is better than 24 by a mile. Daniels handed it off for 22 TD'S and still threw 40! So Maye not as effective as those guys in the air. Caleb with only 6 more passing TD'S than Maye on 22 hand off TD'S. Maye is the closest to the traditional protoype of a QB. He looks big and strong. For the most part, he plays well. He is good at playing within structure. Seldom does he do anything that will bring suprises (whether positive or negative). He is the type of QB who will always get the benefit of the doubt. That's why it's not surprising that a lot of evaluators like him. His best year was in 2022-23. That season, he threw more than 500 passes and scored 37 TDs vs 7 INTs. My biggest concern: He played his worst games towards the end of the season. Same pattern in each of the last two years in college - the years when he was the starter. He seems to fade towards the end of a season. And that's on a much shorter season than he will play in the NFL.
JJM had 22 TD'S to 4 INT'S for just under 3000 yards. He had just 3 rushing TD'S for all of his speed.(Penix rushed for 3 TD'S and only gained 8 yards all season. Lol) JJM had 19 sacks in over 332 dropbacks. JJM is to me the most difficult to assess. IMO he should have stayed in college for another year. And to me, he and Daniels are the two QBs most similar to each other than any other pair of QBs in the class. The difference is that Daniels was the main driver for LSU. Daniels had better receivers, but with the protection JJM got from his OL and the running game they had, IMO JJM was the most sheltered QB of the top 6. He only threw for an average of 22 passes a game. He threw no more than 15 passes in in 9 of their 15 games this past season. I just do not think he was tested enough.1 sack every 12 dropbacks. That's Caleb Williams style! These guys are not seeing the defense or making the right play, OR BOTH! Throw it away, gottdammit! And here we have MPJ with 1 sack every 50 passes going behind these fools. SMH. TAKING SACKS IS WHY BLEDSOE LOST HIS JOB TO BRADY!!! (Supposedly, stats don't back it up) JJM had the benefit of an RB that rushed for 27 TD'S. Best ground game in all of CFB. Still couldn’t stop taking sacks? Had 10 times the protection of Caleb Williams in my estimation. So, everybody has warts. Look for the fewest. Penix does not have the fewest. Daniels does. Penix is high risk high reward imo. Caleb too. I like the guy who reads the defense best, and makes the best decisions after doing it. These other guys may get there, but Penix is already there mentally. Joe Milton had 20 TD'S to 5 INT'S for over 2800 yards ( similar to JJM but rushed for 4 more TD'S than he did). Rushed for 300 yards. (JJM rushed for 200) 16 sacks on over 354 dropbacks. 1 SACK EVERY 22 DROPBACKS???!!!! (He's reading the defense and making great choices) He's the only guy meeting Penix half way! Underrated LIKE I SAID BEFORE!!! Round 2 steal!!! ALL DAY!!!CHUMPS! (Playful teasing, please don't be offended. Lol) Oh, MPJ threw 36 TD'S to 11 INT'S. Threw for over 4900 yards. A hell of a post DaPatriots! Very sound logic in general but I find it really good most of all because it is well-supported with hard facts. I normally do not respond to posts this long because my responses just make it even longer - gets tiring to read. But it deserves to be responded to. See my responses in blue.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 24, 2024 21:21:57 GMT -5
I agree with everything you had to say, Seattlepat!
Assess Bo Nix if you would. I commented on him later. He has awesome #'s!
Bo Nix had 1 sack EVERY 94 DROPBACKS!
Unheard of!
|
|
|
Post by seattlepat2016 on Feb 24, 2024 21:42:55 GMT -5
Bo Nix had 45 TD'S to 3 INT'S. 5 sacks to over 470 dropbacks. Dude is a slippery eel!!! That's 1 sack for every 94 dropbacks!!!! He is technically the best reader of defense by this stat! 77% completions for over 4500 yards. Rushed for 6 TD'S and over 230 yards. His RB only had 11 TD'S. 9.6 yards per pass to Penix 8.8. 77% completions to Penix 65%. Too many short throws? One dimensional passer? What is it? Super efficient QB, cannot argue THAT! Why isn't he ranked higher? Short throws is a problem if it's keeping your team from scoring TDs. Obviously that was not the case. Then when you look at yards per pass of notable QBs in college, you find that 9.6 in college is not an issue. Mahomes was 8.5. Lamar Jackson was 8.5. Goff 8.9. Purdy 7.8. When I watched his games, I noticed that his lack of greediness for air yards is his superpower. He finds the msot open short pass and releases the pass quickly so that the receiver gets the ball before the spce around him gets closed down - receiver finds himself with plenty of space to run. I do not think he is one-dimensional. He has more than enough arm strength to not be one-dimensional. One thing I will say about Nix though... he does not throw the tightest spiral.
|
|
|
Post by DaPatriots on Feb 24, 2024 22:10:26 GMT -5
Bo Nix had 45 TD'S to 3 INT'S. 5 sacks to over 470 dropbacks. Dude is a slippery eel!!! That's 1 sack for every 94 dropbacks!!!! He is technically the best reader of defense by this stat! 77% completions for over 4500 yards. Rushed for 6 TD'S and over 230 yards. His RB only had 11 TD'S. 9.6 yards per pass to Penix 8.8. 77% completions to Penix 65%. Too many short throws? One dimensional passer? What is it? Super efficient QB, cannot argue THAT! Why isn't he ranked higher? Short throws is a problem if it's keeping your team from scoring TDs. Obviously that was not the case. Then when you look at yards per pass of notable QBs in college, you find that 9.6 in college is not an issue. Mahomes was 8.5. Lamar Jackson was 8.5. Goff 8.9. Purdy 7.8. When I watched his games, I noticed that his lack of greediness for air yards is his superpower. He finds the msot open short pass and releases the pass quickly so that the receiver gets the ball before the spce around him gets closed down - receiver finds himself with plenty of space to run. I do not think he is one-dimensional. He has more than enough arm strength to not be one-dimensional. One thing I will say about Nix though... he does not throw the tightest spiral. He doesn't have the strongest arm, but he definitely made it all work!
|
|