Post by paulk on Oct 10, 2017 21:08:15 GMT -5
Drum Rolls! The University of Beating Vegas like a Drum is up to 3-2 for picks of the week and 9-5 for total picks, thank you.
I ask in retrospect now, Cleveland was favored by Vegas, but why? The Jets were cruising by 10 points before Cleveland scored a less-than-meaningful late touchdown. The Jets still won, and they got to make fun of horrible Cleveland before the game to boot -- cheap thrills for Jets fans, I guess.
Last week’s Game of the Week: nyj cle -9.6 1 -10.6, Jets won by 3.
Other last week picks
It took overtime, but Indy barely covered. Mr. Brissett may be feeling almost ok by this point. He’s trying to save Andrew Luck’s bacon.
sf ind 7.7 1.5 6.2
I took off six points for Derek Carr not being available, but that wasn’t even a fifth of the total damage that Baltimore did to Oakland. Whopping big loss.
bal oak 11.3 2.5 8.8
Week 5 Leaners
And Jacksonville beat up on Pittsburgh. Good leaner!
jac pit 3.1 8.5 -5.4
OK, Seattle is coming around. Seattle pulled it out. Bad leaner.
sea lar 6.2 1.5 4.7
1 kc 14.8 (last wk. 1)
week 5 Non-Call
This was a pretty decent non-call, as things turned out.
ne tb -6.8 -5.5 -1.3
Surprise (to me) week 5 results:
Philly teed off on Arizona.
Jacksonville overwhelmed Pittsburgh. I’d say that Big Ben Roofies is history, but this was also a statement game for Jville.
Oakland without Carr collapsed. Carr will probably be back on the field next week.
Seattle turned around and beat the Rams, but they also picked up two injured players.
So sorry for Houston losing J.J. Watt and Mercilus to IR in the same game. Those double losses can completely change a team’s defensive complexion. I have to take a wild guess as to how this will affect the team next week.
Miami did ok because tennessee’s quarterback went down.
My week 6 power rankings and ratings (based on past performance only)
1 kc 14.8 (last wk. 1) Solid history!
2 jac 12.6 (last wk. 14) They keep beating other teams up.
3 was 12.3 (last wk. 4) Another solid history team.
4 den 12.2 (last wk. 2) Better than I would have thought.
5 buf 11.3 (last wk. 6) Uh huh, above New England right at the moment.
6 car 10.9 (last wk. 10) I still didn’t trust the refs calls two weeks ago, so maybe a #6 ranking is artificially high.
7 phi 10.6 (last wk. 15) Nice game vs. Arizona.
8 ne 10.2 (last wk. 3) Problem: they didn’t beat hardly anyone decisively, not yet. Their last game went down to zero seconds.
9 atl 10.0 (last wk. 8)
10 hou 9.9 (last wk. 7) I expect Houston to plummet.
11 cin 9.4 (last wk. 17)
12 gb 8.8 (last wk. 13)
13 det 8.8 (last wk. 9)
14 bal 8.7 (last wk. 26)
15 oak 8.4 (last wk. 5)
16 min 8.3 (last wk. 11)
17 no 8.0 (last wk. 16)
18 lar 7.9 (last wk. 20)
19 nyj 7.2 (last wk. 23)
20 pit 7.1 (last wk. 18)
21 dal 7.0 (last wk. 12)
22 sea 6.9 (last wk. 19)
23 tb 6.9 (last wk. 22)
24 lac 6.7 (last wk. 27)
25 mia 5.3 (last wk. 28)
26 ten 5.0 (last wk. 21)
27 chi 4.8 (last wk. 29)
28 az 4.8 (last wk. 25)
29 nyg 4.6 (last wk. 24) No Odell? Time to crash and burn?
30 sf 3.5 (last wk. 30)
31 ind 2.2 (last wk. 31) Sorry, Mr. Brissett, you’re beating bunnies.
32 cle 0.8 (last wk. 32) Well, they at least kept it sort of close against the Jets.
My week 6 point spreads
Visitor / Home / My Points / ProFootballLocks sez / Difference
phi car 3.8 3 0.8
chi bal 12.3 6.5 5.8
cle hou 8.0 10 -2.0
gb min 1.6 -3.5 5.1
det no 7.4 4 3.4
mia atl 10.6 11 -0.4
ne nyj -5.2 -9.5 4.3
sf was 19.9 10 9.9
tb az 0.3 -2.5 2.8
lar jac 10.0 2.5 7.5
pit kc 15.0 4 11.0
lac oak 2.6 3 -0.4
nyg den 26.3 12 14.3
bal ten -1.9 off -- iffy quarterback problem?
My Week 6 Game of the Week
KC is real. Folks, they’re real and they’re winning games. This game is going to be an Arrowhead Stadium extra-loud special, where KC feels challenged this week for earning a bye over the AFC North possible nominee or for earning homefield advantage. Pittsburgh’s Big Ben Roofies isn’t the least bit real these days, sorry dude. How many turnovers last week?
pit kc 15.0 4 11.0
Other Picks
I demoted this from Game of the Week to a regular pick because 12 points is a lot of variability. Denver is still going to demolish the Odell-free Giants, who should be about in that give-up spot. Add Denver’s thin air to this mix.
nyg den 26.3 12 14.3
This week would also be a good give-up game for San Francisco. The Red Skins have been holding their own against everybody and are coming off a bye week too, for a home game.
sf was 19.9 10 9.9
Jacksonville keeps acting like they’re for real, except for that one Jets game. The Rams have been pretty so-so the last four games, and I won’t give them that much extra credit for beating whatshisname (the awful forgettable QB) at Indianapolis.
lar jac 10.0 2.5 7.5
Leaners:
9.5 points is a few too many points to give for a Jets team putting together a modest amount of pride lately. Not that New England has been distinguishing themselves lately. Also, Tom Brady isn’t practicing and yet the Patriot offense needs more practice. This is a tough call because of all the moving variables, but I’ll maybe try it as a leaner.
ne nyj -5.2 -9.5 4.3
Non-Calls
I don’t trust Baltimore yet. It looked like Oakland simply collapsed, in which case Baltimore doesn’t deserve quite as much respect as my numbers give them. No opinion!
chi bal 12.3 6.5 5.8
Minnesota benefited from an unknown Case Keenum coming in for Sam Bradford. Next week, Green Bay will have video on this guy. That’s why Minnesota’s numbers should be a bit lower. Out!
gb min 1.6 -3.5 5.1
I ask in retrospect now, Cleveland was favored by Vegas, but why? The Jets were cruising by 10 points before Cleveland scored a less-than-meaningful late touchdown. The Jets still won, and they got to make fun of horrible Cleveland before the game to boot -- cheap thrills for Jets fans, I guess.
Last week’s Game of the Week: nyj cle -9.6 1 -10.6, Jets won by 3.
Other last week picks
It took overtime, but Indy barely covered. Mr. Brissett may be feeling almost ok by this point. He’s trying to save Andrew Luck’s bacon.
sf ind 7.7 1.5 6.2
I took off six points for Derek Carr not being available, but that wasn’t even a fifth of the total damage that Baltimore did to Oakland. Whopping big loss.
bal oak 11.3 2.5 8.8
Week 5 Leaners
And Jacksonville beat up on Pittsburgh. Good leaner!
jac pit 3.1 8.5 -5.4
OK, Seattle is coming around. Seattle pulled it out. Bad leaner.
sea lar 6.2 1.5 4.7
1 kc 14.8 (last wk. 1)
week 5 Non-Call
This was a pretty decent non-call, as things turned out.
ne tb -6.8 -5.5 -1.3
Surprise (to me) week 5 results:
Philly teed off on Arizona.
Jacksonville overwhelmed Pittsburgh. I’d say that Big Ben Roofies is history, but this was also a statement game for Jville.
Oakland without Carr collapsed. Carr will probably be back on the field next week.
Seattle turned around and beat the Rams, but they also picked up two injured players.
So sorry for Houston losing J.J. Watt and Mercilus to IR in the same game. Those double losses can completely change a team’s defensive complexion. I have to take a wild guess as to how this will affect the team next week.
Miami did ok because tennessee’s quarterback went down.
My week 6 power rankings and ratings (based on past performance only)
1 kc 14.8 (last wk. 1) Solid history!
2 jac 12.6 (last wk. 14) They keep beating other teams up.
3 was 12.3 (last wk. 4) Another solid history team.
4 den 12.2 (last wk. 2) Better than I would have thought.
5 buf 11.3 (last wk. 6) Uh huh, above New England right at the moment.
6 car 10.9 (last wk. 10) I still didn’t trust the refs calls two weeks ago, so maybe a #6 ranking is artificially high.
7 phi 10.6 (last wk. 15) Nice game vs. Arizona.
8 ne 10.2 (last wk. 3) Problem: they didn’t beat hardly anyone decisively, not yet. Their last game went down to zero seconds.
9 atl 10.0 (last wk. 8)
10 hou 9.9 (last wk. 7) I expect Houston to plummet.
11 cin 9.4 (last wk. 17)
12 gb 8.8 (last wk. 13)
13 det 8.8 (last wk. 9)
14 bal 8.7 (last wk. 26)
15 oak 8.4 (last wk. 5)
16 min 8.3 (last wk. 11)
17 no 8.0 (last wk. 16)
18 lar 7.9 (last wk. 20)
19 nyj 7.2 (last wk. 23)
20 pit 7.1 (last wk. 18)
21 dal 7.0 (last wk. 12)
22 sea 6.9 (last wk. 19)
23 tb 6.9 (last wk. 22)
24 lac 6.7 (last wk. 27)
25 mia 5.3 (last wk. 28)
26 ten 5.0 (last wk. 21)
27 chi 4.8 (last wk. 29)
28 az 4.8 (last wk. 25)
29 nyg 4.6 (last wk. 24) No Odell? Time to crash and burn?
30 sf 3.5 (last wk. 30)
31 ind 2.2 (last wk. 31) Sorry, Mr. Brissett, you’re beating bunnies.
32 cle 0.8 (last wk. 32) Well, they at least kept it sort of close against the Jets.
My week 6 point spreads
Visitor / Home / My Points / ProFootballLocks sez / Difference
phi car 3.8 3 0.8
chi bal 12.3 6.5 5.8
cle hou 8.0 10 -2.0
gb min 1.6 -3.5 5.1
det no 7.4 4 3.4
mia atl 10.6 11 -0.4
ne nyj -5.2 -9.5 4.3
sf was 19.9 10 9.9
tb az 0.3 -2.5 2.8
lar jac 10.0 2.5 7.5
pit kc 15.0 4 11.0
lac oak 2.6 3 -0.4
nyg den 26.3 12 14.3
bal ten -1.9 off -- iffy quarterback problem?
My Week 6 Game of the Week
KC is real. Folks, they’re real and they’re winning games. This game is going to be an Arrowhead Stadium extra-loud special, where KC feels challenged this week for earning a bye over the AFC North possible nominee or for earning homefield advantage. Pittsburgh’s Big Ben Roofies isn’t the least bit real these days, sorry dude. How many turnovers last week?
pit kc 15.0 4 11.0
Other Picks
I demoted this from Game of the Week to a regular pick because 12 points is a lot of variability. Denver is still going to demolish the Odell-free Giants, who should be about in that give-up spot. Add Denver’s thin air to this mix.
nyg den 26.3 12 14.3
This week would also be a good give-up game for San Francisco. The Red Skins have been holding their own against everybody and are coming off a bye week too, for a home game.
sf was 19.9 10 9.9
Jacksonville keeps acting like they’re for real, except for that one Jets game. The Rams have been pretty so-so the last four games, and I won’t give them that much extra credit for beating whatshisname (the awful forgettable QB) at Indianapolis.
lar jac 10.0 2.5 7.5
Leaners:
9.5 points is a few too many points to give for a Jets team putting together a modest amount of pride lately. Not that New England has been distinguishing themselves lately. Also, Tom Brady isn’t practicing and yet the Patriot offense needs more practice. This is a tough call because of all the moving variables, but I’ll maybe try it as a leaner.
ne nyj -5.2 -9.5 4.3
Non-Calls
I don’t trust Baltimore yet. It looked like Oakland simply collapsed, in which case Baltimore doesn’t deserve quite as much respect as my numbers give them. No opinion!
chi bal 12.3 6.5 5.8
Minnesota benefited from an unknown Case Keenum coming in for Sam Bradford. Next week, Green Bay will have video on this guy. That’s why Minnesota’s numbers should be a bit lower. Out!
gb min 1.6 -3.5 5.1
