Post by paulk on Oct 24, 2017 21:06:12 GMT -5
I’m back up to 4-3 in games of the week and 11-9-1 in overall picks.
Is it worth spotting the Patriots two extra points per week in October because their tightening up process always happens every October like clockwork? Yes, absolutely. More than two points might be a good idea. By my own rule I officially stuck a fork in the bird at the ten-minute mark in the fourth quarter when the Patriots were up 20 to 0. 23 to nothing was overkill, an afterthought of driving slowly down the field and killing the clock.
In some fairness to my nine point forecast, Atlanta probably should have had the field goal that they doinked off the uprights. Oh, and kids, never go for it on fourth down and six yards to go, not in youth leagues and especially not against the New England Patriots. The Pats simply don’t flinch in those situations; rather they think to themselves, “OK, so you’re disrespecting our defense” and they buckle down pretty well for that one play and for the rest of the game.
Recap of Week 7 Game of the Week
With practically zero seconds to go Minnesota was 15 points ahead, and a 15 point victory would have been a nice match for my 19.8 point prediction. As the game clock expired, Baltimore hit a fourth and 11 shot from the 13-yard line. Minnesota won by only 8 points for a 2.5 point win against the spread. OK, Baltimore, enjoy your meaningless Hail Mary-like touchdown pass. Please let it pad your stats and you can feel all semi-respected too. It doesn’t count in my stats.
bal min 19.8 5.5 14.3
Other picks
Buffalo won by 3. It’s a push. Moral: don’t trust Buffalo.
tb buf 16.2 3 13.2
The Patriots give up a few meaningless points late in exchange for eating the clock. That’s normal in Foxboro. It still left the Pats with a 16-point margin of victory and a 12.5-point win against the spread, six points more than my numbers expected but that happens.
atl ne 9.6 3.5 6.1
All of my leaners were bad, but that’s why they’re leaners.
Yay Cleveland sort of -- at least they made it into overtime and the dog pound cheered a bit. Tennessee by 3 in overtime was a bad leaner by 2.5 points
ten cle -11.4 -5.5 -5.9
A terrible leaner. Pittsburgh won by 15.
cin pit 0.6 5.5 -4.9
And a second terrible leaner. Seattle won by 17.
sea nyg 0.4 -5.5 5.9
Week 8 power rankings and ratings:
1 jac 13.9 (last wk. 8) That’s right! Jacksonville keeps beating up on people! I have to pencil them in as winning the AFC South.
2 no 13.3 (last wk. 1)
3 kc 13.0 (last wk. 2)
4 pit 12.4 (last wk. 9) Except for that one awful performance by Ben Roofies, they’re a solid team now.
5 lar 11.8 (last wk. 7)
6 phi 11.6 (last wk. 3)
7 ne 11.5 (last wk. 10) New England’s awful September is dragging them down in my all-numeric ratings. Given my druthers I might nudge them a bit higher. Nobody but nobody wants to play them at this point except for the chance of knocking off the reigning champions.
8 min 10.9 (last wk. 4)
9 dal 9.2 (last wk. 21)
10 hou 8.9 (last wk. 14)
11 was 8.8 (last wk. 5) Philly loses two players and Washington still takes the big tank? Maybe something is wrong with Wash right now.
12 bal 8.8 (last wk. 30) I can’t figure out Baltimore. They have the biggest up-downs in the league. If I said mob influence both ways on the refs I’d have to prove it, so I’ll just whistle.
13 lac 8.5 (last wk. 18)
14 chi 8.4 (last wk. 29) And another team that my numbers can’t figure out.
15 mia 8.1 (last wk. 12) This assumes that Jay Cutler is ok. Actually, he has cracked ribs. Who else does Miami have?
16 sea 7.7 (last wk. 17)
17 oak 7.7 (last wk. 24)
18 car 7.5 (last wk. 6) Carolina has a couple of injury problems.
19 gb 7.5 (last wk. 16)
20 nyj 7.2 (last wk. 26) Meh.
21 atl 6.8 (last wk. 13)
22 buf 6.7 (last wk. 11) On a watch list.
23 tb 6.7 (last wk. 28)
24 cin 6.6 (last wk. 15)
25 det 6.4 (last wk. 20)
26 nyg 5.5 (last wk. 23)
27 ten 5.5 (last wk. 22)
28 den 5.4 (last wk. 19) Mayday!
29 az 4.8 (last wk. 25)
30 sf 2.3 (last wk. 27)
31 cle 1.4 (last wk. 32)
32 ind 1.1 (last wk. 31) I’m sorry, Mr. Brissett. Your team is actually below Cleveland. You’re one year removed from rookie status and Bill B thought nothing of getting rid of you last summer. Good news of sorts for you: Andrew Luck might never play again.
Week 8 point spreads
Visitor / home / My Points / Vegas’s Opinion / Difference
mia bal 7.3 3 4.3
min cle -17.3 -9.5 -7.8
atl nyj 4.4 -4.5 8.9
car tb 1.0 2 -1.0
sf phi 15.4 13 2.4
chi no 11.6 9 2.6
lac ne 14.8 7.5 7.3
oak buf 0.7 2.5 -1.8
ind cin 13.6 10 3.6
hou sea -0.6 5.5 -6.1
dal was -0.4 -2.5 2.1
pit det -1.2 -3 1.8
den kc 11.0 7.5 3.5
Week 8 Game of the Week
This game rides the Patriots effect. Atlanta’s run defense has just been beaten up within an inch of its life after seventy-something defensive plays against the league’s heaviest team, the whole Falcons team feels stupid for running two fourth and long plays early in the game with zero points and a black eye to show for all that, they’ve just booted three games in a row and now they have to play a Jets running offense. The betting public supports Atlanta because, after all, they coulda woulda won the Super Bowl, whereas the Jets were supposed to be Scamming for Sam after they traded their talent away. I’ll like the Patriots later in this column but this game particularly passes the sniff test. The Jets are out there struggling away this year, with a pretty good coach and a survivable older QB.
atl nyj 4.4 -4.5 8.9
Other Picks
Cleveland strikes me as a 0-16 team that wants glory against highly selected possible victim teams such as Tennessee. They’ll roll over against a good team that doesn’t have a fou-fou reputation, and that’s Minnesota this year, the Minnesota that easily got rid of Baltimore last week as expected. Furthermore Cleveland doesn’t have to impress their home crowd because they’re in London. Who will cheer for a winless team?
min cle -17.3 -9.5 -7.8
So what on earth makes the LA Chargers so good? LA lost their starting left guard last week. Sure the Chargers had two good games recently, but New England looks all powered up right now, like Super Mario. Whatever BB needed to do with his annual army of newbies, he seems to have just done. New England had a relatively calm fourth quarter and all of their running backs look like they’re ready for the next game. It’s a long flight from Los Angeles and a three-hour time shift is always worse when you go from West to East. The World Series in the L.A. area almost hit 100 degrees today but right now half an inch of rain is forecast for Sunday around here.
lac ne 14.8 7.5 7.3
Leaner
I don’t have a great feeling about this game. Houston’s qb is a rookie and he’ll be in a particularly loud stadium. Houston is missing the core of its tremendous defensive line now, so the power rating might be a bit high. I’m pushing this game back to a leaner.
hou sea -0.6 5.5 -6.1
Non-call
I can no longer figure out who plays QB for Miami this Sunday, if anybody, and I also can’t figure out Baltimore.
mia bal 7.3 3 4.3
Is it worth spotting the Patriots two extra points per week in October because their tightening up process always happens every October like clockwork? Yes, absolutely. More than two points might be a good idea. By my own rule I officially stuck a fork in the bird at the ten-minute mark in the fourth quarter when the Patriots were up 20 to 0. 23 to nothing was overkill, an afterthought of driving slowly down the field and killing the clock.
In some fairness to my nine point forecast, Atlanta probably should have had the field goal that they doinked off the uprights. Oh, and kids, never go for it on fourth down and six yards to go, not in youth leagues and especially not against the New England Patriots. The Pats simply don’t flinch in those situations; rather they think to themselves, “OK, so you’re disrespecting our defense” and they buckle down pretty well for that one play and for the rest of the game.
Recap of Week 7 Game of the Week
With practically zero seconds to go Minnesota was 15 points ahead, and a 15 point victory would have been a nice match for my 19.8 point prediction. As the game clock expired, Baltimore hit a fourth and 11 shot from the 13-yard line. Minnesota won by only 8 points for a 2.5 point win against the spread. OK, Baltimore, enjoy your meaningless Hail Mary-like touchdown pass. Please let it pad your stats and you can feel all semi-respected too. It doesn’t count in my stats.
bal min 19.8 5.5 14.3
Other picks
Buffalo won by 3. It’s a push. Moral: don’t trust Buffalo.
tb buf 16.2 3 13.2
The Patriots give up a few meaningless points late in exchange for eating the clock. That’s normal in Foxboro. It still left the Pats with a 16-point margin of victory and a 12.5-point win against the spread, six points more than my numbers expected but that happens.
atl ne 9.6 3.5 6.1
All of my leaners were bad, but that’s why they’re leaners.
Yay Cleveland sort of -- at least they made it into overtime and the dog pound cheered a bit. Tennessee by 3 in overtime was a bad leaner by 2.5 points
ten cle -11.4 -5.5 -5.9
A terrible leaner. Pittsburgh won by 15.
cin pit 0.6 5.5 -4.9
And a second terrible leaner. Seattle won by 17.
sea nyg 0.4 -5.5 5.9
Week 8 power rankings and ratings:
1 jac 13.9 (last wk. 8) That’s right! Jacksonville keeps beating up on people! I have to pencil them in as winning the AFC South.
2 no 13.3 (last wk. 1)
3 kc 13.0 (last wk. 2)
4 pit 12.4 (last wk. 9) Except for that one awful performance by Ben Roofies, they’re a solid team now.
5 lar 11.8 (last wk. 7)
6 phi 11.6 (last wk. 3)
7 ne 11.5 (last wk. 10) New England’s awful September is dragging them down in my all-numeric ratings. Given my druthers I might nudge them a bit higher. Nobody but nobody wants to play them at this point except for the chance of knocking off the reigning champions.
8 min 10.9 (last wk. 4)
9 dal 9.2 (last wk. 21)
10 hou 8.9 (last wk. 14)
11 was 8.8 (last wk. 5) Philly loses two players and Washington still takes the big tank? Maybe something is wrong with Wash right now.
12 bal 8.8 (last wk. 30) I can’t figure out Baltimore. They have the biggest up-downs in the league. If I said mob influence both ways on the refs I’d have to prove it, so I’ll just whistle.
13 lac 8.5 (last wk. 18)
14 chi 8.4 (last wk. 29) And another team that my numbers can’t figure out.
15 mia 8.1 (last wk. 12) This assumes that Jay Cutler is ok. Actually, he has cracked ribs. Who else does Miami have?
16 sea 7.7 (last wk. 17)
17 oak 7.7 (last wk. 24)
18 car 7.5 (last wk. 6) Carolina has a couple of injury problems.
19 gb 7.5 (last wk. 16)
20 nyj 7.2 (last wk. 26) Meh.
21 atl 6.8 (last wk. 13)
22 buf 6.7 (last wk. 11) On a watch list.
23 tb 6.7 (last wk. 28)
24 cin 6.6 (last wk. 15)
25 det 6.4 (last wk. 20)
26 nyg 5.5 (last wk. 23)
27 ten 5.5 (last wk. 22)
28 den 5.4 (last wk. 19) Mayday!
29 az 4.8 (last wk. 25)
30 sf 2.3 (last wk. 27)
31 cle 1.4 (last wk. 32)
32 ind 1.1 (last wk. 31) I’m sorry, Mr. Brissett. Your team is actually below Cleveland. You’re one year removed from rookie status and Bill B thought nothing of getting rid of you last summer. Good news of sorts for you: Andrew Luck might never play again.
Week 8 point spreads
Visitor / home / My Points / Vegas’s Opinion / Difference
mia bal 7.3 3 4.3
min cle -17.3 -9.5 -7.8
atl nyj 4.4 -4.5 8.9
car tb 1.0 2 -1.0
sf phi 15.4 13 2.4
chi no 11.6 9 2.6
lac ne 14.8 7.5 7.3
oak buf 0.7 2.5 -1.8
ind cin 13.6 10 3.6
hou sea -0.6 5.5 -6.1
dal was -0.4 -2.5 2.1
pit det -1.2 -3 1.8
den kc 11.0 7.5 3.5
Week 8 Game of the Week
This game rides the Patriots effect. Atlanta’s run defense has just been beaten up within an inch of its life after seventy-something defensive plays against the league’s heaviest team, the whole Falcons team feels stupid for running two fourth and long plays early in the game with zero points and a black eye to show for all that, they’ve just booted three games in a row and now they have to play a Jets running offense. The betting public supports Atlanta because, after all, they coulda woulda won the Super Bowl, whereas the Jets were supposed to be Scamming for Sam after they traded their talent away. I’ll like the Patriots later in this column but this game particularly passes the sniff test. The Jets are out there struggling away this year, with a pretty good coach and a survivable older QB.
atl nyj 4.4 -4.5 8.9
Other Picks
Cleveland strikes me as a 0-16 team that wants glory against highly selected possible victim teams such as Tennessee. They’ll roll over against a good team that doesn’t have a fou-fou reputation, and that’s Minnesota this year, the Minnesota that easily got rid of Baltimore last week as expected. Furthermore Cleveland doesn’t have to impress their home crowd because they’re in London. Who will cheer for a winless team?
min cle -17.3 -9.5 -7.8
So what on earth makes the LA Chargers so good? LA lost their starting left guard last week. Sure the Chargers had two good games recently, but New England looks all powered up right now, like Super Mario. Whatever BB needed to do with his annual army of newbies, he seems to have just done. New England had a relatively calm fourth quarter and all of their running backs look like they’re ready for the next game. It’s a long flight from Los Angeles and a three-hour time shift is always worse when you go from West to East. The World Series in the L.A. area almost hit 100 degrees today but right now half an inch of rain is forecast for Sunday around here.
lac ne 14.8 7.5 7.3
Leaner
I don’t have a great feeling about this game. Houston’s qb is a rookie and he’ll be in a particularly loud stadium. Houston is missing the core of its tremendous defensive line now, so the power rating might be a bit high. I’m pushing this game back to a leaner.
hou sea -0.6 5.5 -6.1
Non-call
I can no longer figure out who plays QB for Miami this Sunday, if anybody, and I also can’t figure out Baltimore.
mia bal 7.3 3 4.3
