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Post by mthurl on Apr 11, 2024 3:30:49 GMT -5
Interesting thread, I just happened upon a MPJ “every throw 2023” video. I’ve always thought he had the best arm in the draft, some decent size, big hands…he kid of reminds me of Warren Moon, yet I do think there are some things I don’t like all that much either. He is a different player throwing the ball under pressure - I guess they all are - but when you see an effortless rocket ship armed quarterback struggle and look pedestrian under pressure…it kind of makes you doubt a few things. But the arm talent is most definitely there, and his deep ball passing is unreal. This kid can put the football wherever he wants, whenever he wants, kind of like Dan Marino. Actually, he’s pretty much the black Dan Marino. I shared a video where Eisen and Breer were talking about coaches liking Penix much more than scouts. The coaches' reasoning is that they can teach him to move in the pocket to handle the pressure better. They cannot teach anticipation and accuracy on long passes. IMO anticipation, timing and accuracy are his superpower. Everyone in the top 6 has more than adequate arm for a rookie QB. If you have the time, I suggest you watch the "every throw" video again. I suggest you pause at the moment Penix pulls his arm behind him to start the throwing motion (practically the moment he decides when, where and how to throw the ball). With the video paused look at the receiver he is passing to. Especially with Odunze, you will find, quite often, that the WR has no separation at the moment Penix starts to throw. But Penix and the receiver both know where the pass is going, based on what the defenders do. That's NFL level connection between QB and receivers. When you look at the "every throw" videos of the other QBs, you will find that on most passes they wait for the receiver to separate before throwing the fastball in. I’ll look for that, I just find it hard to actually see a lot without coach’s tape. But I’ll take a closer look to see what you’re noticing. Thanks. But I think his arm is basically outstanding. And I agree, all the rookie quarterbacks were talking about have enough arm/very good arms. Maybe with the exception of Bo Nix. I also worry about JJ McCarthy because 90% of his throws are over the middle, line drive type throws. I think it’s going to take him a while to develop other throws, plus he has all day to throw.
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froglegs
3rd String but playing on Special Teams
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Post by froglegs on Apr 11, 2024 6:17:02 GMT -5
In theory it looks fine and cool but when do you pick Penix? He might be gone long before round #2 (in the last mock draft on NFL.com he goes to the Raiders at #13). By trading down you risk to go empty at the QB position what would be an utter disaster. Would only be possible with a trade with Vikings for both their 2 first round picks and 2025 1st rd pick. I’d rather trade with giants for their 2024 1st, 2nd, 3rd RBs pics and 2025 1st rnd pick and take a qb like Penix or Bo nix I doubt the Vikings would give 3 firsts for moving up 8 spots. Penix or Nix at #6? That's too high for such projects.
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Post by rkarp on Apr 11, 2024 6:31:35 GMT -5
Would only be possible with a trade with Vikings for both their 2 first round picks and 2025 1st rd pick. I’d rather trade with giants for their 2024 1st, 2nd, 3rd RBs pics and 2025 1st rnd pick and take a qb like Penix or Bo nix I doubt the Vikings would give 3 firsts for moving up 8 spots. Penix or Nix at #6? That's too high for such projects. in theory, a trade proposed with the Vikings, is not really giving up 3 first round picks they are swapping first round picks, and giving up another first rd pick this year, and a 2nd first round pick next year with regards to "value", the Pats are not getting back enough in a trade with the Vikes as proposed
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froglegs
3rd String but playing on Special Teams
Posts: 894
Likes: 479
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Post by froglegs on Apr 11, 2024 11:46:18 GMT -5
I doubt the Vikings would give 3 firsts for moving up 8 spots. Penix or Nix at #6? That's too high for such projects. in theory, a trade proposed with the Vikings, is not really giving up 3 first round picks they are swapping first round picks, and giving up another first rd pick this year, and a 2nd first round pick next year with regards to "value", the Pats are not getting back enough in a trade with the Vikes as proposed Depending on the charts you are refering to #3 has a value of 2200, while #11 has 1250 and #23 760. Next year first has more value than 190 don't you think so?
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Post by rkarp on Apr 11, 2024 11:53:42 GMT -5
in theory, a trade proposed with the Vikings, is not really giving up 3 first round picks they are swapping first round picks, and giving up another first rd pick this year, and a 2nd first round pick next year with regards to "value", the Pats are not getting back enough in a trade with the Vikes as proposed Depending on the charts you are refering to #3 has a value of 2200, while #11 has 1250 and #23 760. Next year first has more value than 190 don't you think so? again, not my theory, but waiting a year for a draft pick lowers the value 1 round. if the Vikes are in the playoffs, that pick is in the 270-350 area. while more than 190, the team looking to move up, should be the one "over paying"
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 11, 2024 11:57:31 GMT -5
Former NFL QB JT O'Sullivan in with his 2024 NFL Draft QB Rankings
1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. JJ McCarthy 4. Drake Maye 5. Michael Penix Jr. 6. Bo Nix 7. Spencer Rattler 8. Jordan Travis 9. Joe Milton
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Post by rkarp on Apr 11, 2024 12:30:29 GMT -5
I shared a video where Eisen and Breer were talking about coaches liking Penix much more than scouts. The coaches' reasoning is that they can teach him to move in the pocket to handle the pressure better. They cannot teach anticipation and accuracy on long passes. IMO anticipation, timing and accuracy are his superpower. Everyone in the top 6 has more than adequate arm for a rookie QB. If you have the time, I suggest you watch the "every throw" video again. I suggest you pause at the moment Penix pulls his arm behind him to start the throwing motion (practically the moment he decides when, where and how to throw the ball). With the video paused look at the receiver he is passing to. Especially with Odunze, you will find, quite often, that the WR has no separation at the moment Penix starts to throw. But Penix and the receiver both know where the pass is going, based on what the defenders do. That's NFL level connection between QB and receivers. When you look at the "every throw" videos of the other QBs, you will find that on most passes they wait for the receiver to separate before throwing the fastball in. I’ll look for that, I just find it hard to actually see a lot without coach’s tape. But I’ll take a closer look to see what you’re noticing. Thanks. But I think his arm is basically outstanding. And I agree, all the rookie quarterbacks were talking about have enough arm/very good arms. Maybe with the exception of Bo Nix. I also worry about JJ McCarthy because 90% of his throws are over the middle, line drive type throws. I think it’s going to take him a while to develop other throws, plus he has all day to throw. I think I saw the clip with Eisen (great pod) and Dane Brugler (the Athletic) with Brugler saying Penix is not faring well not because of anything physical or due to injury. it was all mental in reading or not reading the Michigan defense. I think he also said on the same pod that of the top 6, Maye had the worst pro day based on him attending and talking to people
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 11, 2024 14:09:14 GMT -5
Penix is intriguing to me, but we've heard no interest rumor-wise from the Patriots (at least publicly) and as of now he's had no top 30 visit scheduled with the team. Doesn't mean they won't take him, it's possible they're his secret admirer, but I wouldn't bet on it. My biggest problem aside from the injuries is his age. At 23, we don't know how much more he's going to grow as a player. Plus coming into this situation with this roster IMO would not be ideal to start his career. I think he would be better off somewhere like Minnesota or San Francisco where the talent is already built around him so all he has to do is flourish with his arm, which we've all seen he's capable of doing. Why is being drafted at age 23 such a big deal for Penix but it was not for Joe Burrow? Ceilings are just more uncertain at 23-24 vs 21-22. Doesn't mean they won't be great or that there ceilings are automatically not high. Your just more likely to grow as a player coming into the league younger than older. I like Jayden Daniels the most out of all these QB's and he's 23, but I know he also likely doesn't have the highest ceiling of the QB prospects in part because he's 23 and Maye is 21. Penix could be great, especially if he goes to the right situation. Burrow also was the clear cut QB of his draft class.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 11, 2024 15:52:17 GMT -5
I shared a video where Eisen and Breer were talking about coaches liking Penix much more than scouts. The coaches' reasoning is that they can teach him to move in the pocket to handle the pressure better. They cannot teach anticipation and accuracy on long passes. IMO anticipation, timing and accuracy are his superpower. Everyone in the top 6 has more than adequate arm for a rookie QB. If you have the time, I suggest you watch the "every throw" video again. I suggest you pause at the moment Penix pulls his arm behind him to start the throwing motion (practically the moment he decides when, where and how to throw the ball). With the video paused look at the receiver he is passing to. Especially with Odunze, you will find, quite often, that the WR has no separation at the moment Penix starts to throw. But Penix and the receiver both know where the pass is going, based on what the defenders do. That's NFL level connection between QB and receivers. When you look at the "every throw" videos of the other QBs, you will find that on most passes they wait for the receiver to separate before throwing the fastball in. Perfect! Because I heard our receivers don't get any separation. Partly because of how the data is collected.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 11, 2024 15:55:55 GMT -5
Why is being drafted at age 23 such a big deal for Penix but it was not for Joe Burrow? Ceilings are just more uncertain at 23-24 vs 21-22. Doesn't mean they won't be great or that there ceilings are automatically not high. Your just more likely to grow as a player coming into the league younger than older. I like Jayden Daniels the most out of all these QB's and he's 23, but I know he also likely doesn't have the highest ceiling of the QB prospects in part because he's 23 and Maye is 21. Penix could be great, especially if he goes to the right situation. Burrow also was the clear cut QB of his draft class. Do you have factual evidence of that?
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 12, 2024 8:22:24 GMT -5
Ceilings are just more uncertain at 23-24 vs 21-22. Doesn't mean they won't be great or that there ceilings are automatically not high. Your just more likely to grow as a player coming into the league younger than older. I like Jayden Daniels the most out of all these QB's and he's 23, but I know he also likely doesn't have the highest ceiling of the QB prospects in part because he's 23 and Maye is 21. Penix could be great, especially if he goes to the right situation. Burrow also was the clear cut QB of his draft class. Do you have factual evidence of that? Of what?
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 12, 2024 16:40:24 GMT -5
Do you have factual evidence of that? Of what? That there is actually a meaningful difference in how far prospects are from their ceiling, based on how old they are when they are drafted. Or even that QBs who were drafted younger turned out to be better QBs in the NFL?
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 12, 2024 18:26:55 GMT -5
Schefty doubling down on Daniels at 2....
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 12, 2024 18:32:05 GMT -5
That there is actually a meaningful difference in how far prospects are from their ceiling, based on how old they are when they are drafted. Or even that QBs who were drafted younger turned out to be better QBs in the NFL? I never said that younger QB's automatically equals a better player. I said more often than not, they have a higher ceiling because they still haven't fully grown into their body and habits as a player. It doesn't mean you can't have a high ceiling at 23, its just not as likely to be higher as a guy at 21, because you can MOLD that guy more into what you want him to be vs a 23 year old. Do I have actual scientific evidence to back up my claims? No admittedly I do not. But in Penix's case, he's already had a ton of injuries at a young age and played 6 years at the collegiate level. That's a lot of bodywork. Usually those kind of prospects are not going to drastically improve. There are exceptions in life of course. Like anything else.
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 12, 2024 20:05:09 GMT -5
The more video I watch (I don't watch any Caleb Williams), the more convinced I am that Penix is far and away the best QB in this class.
He looks like a top 10 NFL QB already. I just watched some 30 minutes again and was amazed at what I saw.....and came away again with the following:
1) He is the only QB that can make all the throws. And make them accurately. JJM can't make all the throws partly due to his long-winded throwing motion that makes it difficult for him to throw passes with touch (see the video done by Kurt Warner). Drake Maye to me is not a day 1 QB. Daniel's arm is average, but he does seem to have a knack for accurate long passes.
2. His ability to get rid of the ball under pressure is elite. This will force defenses to think twice about blitzing.
3. He seems to be the best in this class at post-snap awareness.
This guy might be better than I thought.
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Post by patsfan2007 on Apr 12, 2024 20:14:27 GMT -5
That there is actually a meaningful difference in how far prospects are from their ceiling, based on how old they are when they are drafted. Or even that QBs who were drafted younger turned out to be better QBs in the NFL? I never said that younger QB's automatically equals a better player. I said more often than not, they have a higher ceiling because they still haven't fully grown into their body and habits as a player. It doesn't mean you can't have a high ceiling at 23, its just not as likely to be higher as a guy at 21, because you can MOLD that guy more into what you want him to be vs a 23 year old. Do I have actual scientific evidence to back up my claims? No admittedly I do not. But in Penix's case, he's already had a ton of injuries at a young age and played 6 years at the collegiate level. That's a lot of bodywork. Usually those kind of prospects are not going to drastically improve. There are exceptions in life of course. Like anything else. Can you name a good NFL QB who peaked at 23? Should we then draft a 17 year old QB.....just because they can be more easily molded?
This age take is so insane my brain hurts.
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Post by CWTB on Apr 12, 2024 21:17:58 GMT -5
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 13, 2024 0:07:31 GMT -5
I never said that younger QB's automatically equals a better player. I said more often than not, they have a higher ceiling because they still haven't fully grown into their body and habits as a player. It doesn't mean you can't have a high ceiling at 23, its just not as likely to be higher as a guy at 21, because you can MOLD that guy more into what you want him to be vs a 23 year old. Do I have actual scientific evidence to back up my claims? No admittedly I do not. But in Penix's case, he's already had a ton of injuries at a young age and played 6 years at the collegiate level. That's a lot of bodywork. Usually those kind of prospects are not going to drastically improve. There are exceptions in life of course. Like anything else. Can you name a good NFL QB who peaked at 23? Should we then draft a 17 year old QB.....just because they can be more easily molded?
This age take is so insane my brain hurts.
WHERE did I say the word peak??? Are you guys even reading my posts or are you choosing to argue about it just because I'm pointing out a potential flaw about Michael Penix as a prospect and trying to illustrate my point about QB's who are 21 vs 23 regarding their development as a player. Lmfao. If anything, the counterargument to this would actually be that I should mainly focus on the body of work in total in college vs just what age they happen to be at when drafted. Mahomes was 22 when he was drafted and had played 3 college seasons, Josh Allen was 21 and had started in 2 years. Penix has played for 6 YEARS in college. Ultimately, as a scout evaluator, your balancing a prospect's ceiling vs what they already can do when picking college players.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 13, 2024 13:59:52 GMT -5
Schefty doubling down on Daniels at 2.... It is a pretty safe bet. Daniels would be the best (and best fit) QB that Kingsbury has ever had to run his system.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 13, 2024 14:18:39 GMT -5
Can you name a good NFL QB who peaked at 23? Should we then draft a 17 year old QB.....just because they can be more easily molded?
This age take is so insane my brain hurts.
WHERE did I say the word peak??? Are you guys even reading my posts or are you choosing to argue about it just because I'm pointing out a potential flaw about Michael Penix as a prospect and trying to illustrate my point about QB's who are 21 vs 23 regarding their development as a player. Lmfao. If anything, the counterargument to this would actually be that I should mainly focus on the body of work in total in college vs just what age they happen to be at when drafted. Mahomes was 22 when he was drafted and had played 3 college seasons, Josh Allen was 21 and had started in 2 years. Penix has played for 6 YEARS in college. Ultimately, as a scout evaluator, your balancing a prospect's ceiling vs what they already can do when picking college players. I bet most people on this discussion think of "ceiling" and "peak" as synonymous with each other. Also, on your "body of work" argument: 1) You are saying that a younger guy has a higher ceiling just because he is younger; than the guy who actually demonstrated performance while being the guy who mainly carried his team. 2) Allen has not done shit yet. Why should we care about him? That leaves us with Mahomes. If you bothered to actually look at what Mahomes was like in his last year of college, you would easily find the following: a) He was not a winner... at least in the sense that JJM fans think of JJM as a winner (that his teams almost never lost) b) He threw a lot of passes per season. 591 on just his last year in college. 573 on the year before. That's 200 more than JJM's per season reps. It's not just about throwing the ball. What matters is the reps doing the whole series of action: reading the D pre-snap, reading the D again post-snap, processing, deciding and executing the pass. How QBs look in drills at the combine or pro-day do not mean shit. QBs always look good in QB drills at the combine and pro-day because they know what's coming. c) He ran too much. d) His average yards per pass attempt on his last year in college was 8.5 - Bo nix's was 9.6.
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Post by backbay on Apr 13, 2024 14:51:13 GMT -5
Ceilings are just more uncertain at 23-24 vs 21-22. Doesn't mean they won't be great or that there ceilings are automatically not high. Your just more likely to grow as a player coming into the league younger than older. I like Jayden Daniels the most out of all these QB's and he's 23, but I know he also likely doesn't have the highest ceiling of the QB prospects in part because he's 23 and Maye is 21. Penix could be great, especially if he goes to the right situation. Burrow also was the clear cut QB of his draft class. Do you have factual evidence of that? I would say the 49ers may be a good example of an iffy QB that can perform well given a great coach, and a very good "supporting" players on the offensive side of ball.
I think there would be a better chance that QBs like Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix would "thrive"/succeed in lieu of Pardy?
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Post by jamesbrady2020 on Apr 13, 2024 19:53:16 GMT -5
WHERE did I say the word peak??? Are you guys even reading my posts or are you choosing to argue about it just because I'm pointing out a potential flaw about Michael Penix as a prospect and trying to illustrate my point about QB's who are 21 vs 23 regarding their development as a player. Lmfao. If anything, the counterargument to this would actually be that I should mainly focus on the body of work in total in college vs just what age they happen to be at when drafted. Mahomes was 22 when he was drafted and had played 3 college seasons, Josh Allen was 21 and had started in 2 years. Penix has played for 6 YEARS in college. Ultimately, as a scout evaluator, your balancing a prospect's ceiling vs what they already can do when picking college players. I bet most people on this discussion think of "ceiling" and "peak" as synonymous with each other. Also, on your "body of work" argument: 1) You are saying that a younger guy has a higher ceiling just because he is younger; than the guy who actually demonstrated performance while being the guy who mainly carried his team. 2) Allen has not done shit yet. Why should we care about him? That leaves us with Mahomes. If you bothered to actually look at what Mahomes was like in his last year of college, you would easily find the following: a) He was not a winner... at least in the sense that JJM fans think of JJM as a winner (that his teams almost never lost) b) He threw a lot of passes per season. 591 on just his last year in college. 573 on the year before. That's 200 more than JJM's per season reps. It's not just about throwing the ball. What matters is the reps doing the whole series of action: reading the D pre-snap, reading the D again post-snap, processing, deciding and executing the pass. How QBs look in drills at the combine or pro-day do not mean shit. QBs always look good in QB drills at the combine and pro-day because they know what's coming. c) He ran too much. d) His average yards per pass attempt on his last year in college was 8.5 - Bo nix's was 9.6. Ok. And you would take Josh Allen on the Patriots in a friggin second if you could. Any of us would and anyone who says otherwise doesn't want a superstar QB. Sorry idc if he hasn't won a Super Bowl yet, the guy is a top 5 QB in this league.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 13, 2024 23:27:45 GMT -5
I bet most people on this discussion think of "ceiling" and "peak" as synonymous with each other. Also, on your "body of work" argument: 1) You are saying that a younger guy has a higher ceiling just because he is younger; than the guy who actually demonstrated performance while being the guy who mainly carried his team. 2) Allen has not done shit yet. Why should we care about him? That leaves us with Mahomes. If you bothered to actually look at what Mahomes was like in his last year of college, you would easily find the following: a) He was not a winner... at least in the sense that JJM fans think of JJM as a winner (that his teams almost never lost) b) He threw a lot of passes per season. 591 on just his last year in college. 573 on the year before. That's 200 more than JJM's per season reps. It's not just about throwing the ball. What matters is the reps doing the whole series of action: reading the D pre-snap, reading the D again post-snap, processing, deciding and executing the pass. How QBs look in drills at the combine or pro-day do not mean shit. QBs always look good in QB drills at the combine and pro-day because they know what's coming. c) He ran too much. d) His average yards per pass attempt on his last year in college was 8.5 - Bo nix's was 9.6. Ok. And you would take Josh Allen on the Patriots in a friggin second if you could. Any of us would and anyone who says otherwise doesn't want a superstar QB. Sorry idc if he hasn't won a Super Bowl yet, the guy is a top 5 QB in this league. Not necessarily. For free, sure. Otherwise, it would depend on the price. Do you think he is that good for a 27 year old, 6 year NFL veteran? In your own framework, he is much closer to his ceiling/peak. I would not give up a Rd1 pick for Allen.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Apr 14, 2024 0:04:07 GMT -5
Do you have factual evidence of that? I would say the 49ers may be a good example of an iffy QB that can perform well given a great coach, and a very good "supporting" players on the offensive side of ball.
I think there would be a better chance that QBs like Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix would "thrive"/succeed in lieu of Pardy?
SFF got lucky with Purdy. Had he not saved SFF, that FO would have been infamous for giving up tons of draft capital on a QB who really did not deserve that attention. They based the decision on one simple reason - he looked really good on the eye test. Completely disregarded that, over the entirety of his 3-yr college career, the kid had thrown only 318 passes - that's less than the number of passes attempted by each of the top 6 QBs just this last season (less than 2/3 of the passes that each of the following QBs attempted on their last year of college - Mahomes, Burrow)
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Post by muzwell on Apr 14, 2024 8:56:16 GMT -5
Ok. And you would take Josh Allen on the Patriots in a friggin second if you could. Any of us would and anyone who says otherwise doesn't want a superstar QB. Sorry idc if he hasn't won a Super Bowl yet, the guy is a top 5 QB in this league. Not necessarily. For free, sure. Otherwise, it would depend on the price. Do you think he is that good for a 27 year old, 6 year NFL veteran? In your own framework, he is much closer to his ceiling/peak. I would not give up a Rd1 pick for Allen. I wouldn’t give up a first round pick for Allen either. But, I might give up three of them.
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