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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 14:33:21 GMT -5
This is an attempt to break through to some of the Gophers on the board. I think we can all agree that pretty much every QB in the NFL has some for of ability. Yes even Brian Hoyer. When these QB's have better talent around them, they perform better. When they have lesser talent, they do not perform as well.
Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz & Jared Goff: Why situation matters at the quarterback position
By Ben Linsey
May 25, 2020
Any time you get a group of starting quarterbacks from the same draft class, comparisons will follow. Debates get more heated when two of those quarterbacks go in the first two picks of the draft — something we saw in 2016 with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz heading to the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles. Throw in a division rivalry between two fanbases that don’t hold a whole lot of love for each other (the Eagles with Wentz and the Dallas Cowboys landed fourth-rounder Dak Prescott), and the debate can get out of hand, especially given that Wentz and Prescott have been relatively evenly matched to this point in their careers.
All quarterback comparisons aren't the same — no rational Pittsburgh Steelers fan is out there arguing that Mason Rudolph is better than Lamar Jackson. But the debate between Prescott and Wentz is legitimate, which keeps the debate running and serves as an embodiment of the rivalry between their respective teams. Goff doesn’t factor into the NFC East rivalry, but he is still a part of the larger conversation — who is the best quarterback from the 2016 draft class?
Player Passing Grade (ranks among 32 QBs)
Jared Goff 77.5 (18th)
Carson Wentz 82.0 (13th)
Dak Prescott 80.3 (15th)
Just looking at PFF passing grade over the last four seasons, these three quarterbacks aren’t separated by much. PFF's Kevin Cole looked at Wentz, Prescott and Goff through the lens of Bayesian updating late last season, and it shows that at various points in their careers, each of the three has looked like the best quarterback of the group. It’s something that is reflected in PFF's 0-100 grading, as well.
Prescott came into the league guns-blazing as a rookie in 2016, ending the season as the NFL’s seventh-highest graded quarterback, before falling back to earth in 2017 and 2018. He turned things back around this past season, ranking as the third-most valuable quarterback in the NFL in 2019.
It took Wentz a little longer to break through, but when he did in 2017 — a year that ultimately ended in injury and ushered in a Super Bowl run of legend from Nick Foles — there was real MVP talk. Unfortunately, things have gone downhill since that point, with Wentz seeing his PFF grade drop from 84.9 to 79.4 to 75.6 in the last three years.
Goff, meanwhile, didn’t see the field until Week 11 in 2016, and he probably wishes he hadn’t seen the field at all as part of a disastrous Rams offense. Goff finished his rookie season with just a 42.9 overall grade on nearly 400 snaps — a number that still drags down his overall resume. He improved mightily in 2017 under first-year head coach Sean McVay and then again in his second year in the system in 2018, leading the Rams to a Super Bowl and putting up an 84.3 grade in the process (eighth in NFL). As the Rams’ offense fell back down to earth in 2019, so did Goff, though.
When going back and looking at those peaks and valleys, a trend starts to emerge. Each quarterback has looked like the best player in the class when he has had the best situation around him in the class.
The chart above takes all the non-quarterbacks on offense for the Cowboys, Eagles and Rams from 2016 to 2019 (RB, WR, TE and OL) and tallies the wins above replacement (WAR) from those players each season. It’s one way to measure each quarterback’s supporting cast by year — in essence, the value added around Prescott, Wentz and Goff by season. The quarterback with the most talent around him, per PFF WAR, has ended the season as the highest-graded quarterback by our metrics all four years.
Having a talented offensive line and receiving corps puts a quarterback in a better position to play well. That’s not exactly a novel concept, but it is an important one to note. PFF's grading system does its best to isolate quarterback performance relative to the rest of the offense. It dings quarterbacks for bad throws that are bailed out by the receiver and gives them credit for dimes that end up falling incomplete. An offense that continuously puts a quarterback in position to make plays is going to yield more opportunities for a higher grade, though.
It’s what allows Goff — a quarterback who has struggled to deal with pressure to this point in his career — to look so good for much of the 2018 season while plummeting to earth behind an offensive line that was reduced to shambles in 2019. It’s what allows Wentz to ascend to near MVP status in 2017 as the team’s overall receiving grade shot up from 29th in 2016 to eighth in Wentz’s second season with the addition of Alshon Jeffery and massive improvements from Nelson Agholor. It’s what allows Prescott to make a leap this past season with a new offensive coordinator that allowed him to look further downfield in his first full season with Amari Cooper and an emerging Michael Gallup.
It is much too easy to look at the most recent season and ignore the larger body of work. Situation matters for a quarterback. Only the game’s truly elite can consistently overcome bad situations, and Goff, Wentz and Prescott don’t fall into that category. While they may not be in that elite tier, they belong to the same tier — franchise quarterbacks who can lead their teams to a Super Bowl in the right situation.
Health, offensive talent and coaching will once again go a long way towards determining who looks the best in 2020. If that’s the case, my money is on Prescott playing the best for the second straight year.
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Post by lowfbiq on May 25, 2020 14:39:19 GMT -5
Not sure it needed research of any kind.
Situation matters to every player/position.
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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 15:01:35 GMT -5
Not sure it needed research of any kind. Situation matters to every player/position. Yes it should be a no brainer... |
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Post by muzwell on May 25, 2020 15:18:46 GMT -5
Not sure it needed research of any kind. Situation matters to every player/position. Yeah, like saying bullets matter to a gun. |
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Post by carawaydj on May 25, 2020 15:52:21 GMT -5
Before reading this I actually thought Brady would look as good with me at WR as with Edelman. I think I need a drink now.
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Post by digger0862 on May 25, 2020 16:40:53 GMT -5
There's only so many pro bowlers to go around. There's also a salary cap. There are roster limits. There are injuries. There are knuckleheads who let you down. There are so many obstacles to building a complete team. Of the top 10 highest scoring Patriots teams, only 2, 5th and 9th, won super bowls.
Talent at receiver and o-line helps QBs. Duh, but does it help win championships? Of the top ten all-time highest scoring NFL teams none won the super bowl. Only 1 in the top 20 won a super bowl, the 1999 Rams. The best teams win super bowls, not the best offense.
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Post by Wozzy on May 25, 2020 16:44:11 GMT -5
2018 Chiefs with all the shiny hood ornaments and 28th ranked defense = no ring
2019 Chiefs with all the shiny hood ornaments and substantially better defense = ring
Has the Browns experiment with paying high priced vet receivers worked yet?
The best and most cost efficient way to acquire super weapons is to draft and train them yourself, for that you need a QB willing to play with and train those guys.
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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 16:54:49 GMT -5
There's only so many pro bowlers to go around. There's also a salary cap. There are roster limits. There are injuries. There are knuckleheads who let you down. There are so many obstacles to building a complete team. Of the top 10 highest scoring Patriots teams, only 2, 5th and 9th, won super bowls. Talent at receiver and o-line helps QBs. Duh, but does it help win championships? Of the top ten all-time highest scoring NFL teams none won the super bowl. Only 1 in the top 20 won a super bowl, the 1999 Rams. The best teams win super bowls, not the best offense. Would have helped us win one last year. |
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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 16:59:35 GMT -5
2018 Chiefs with all the shiny hood ornaments and 28th ranked defense = no ring LOL no ring ONLY because we beat them in the game before the superbowl. If KC wins the coin flip for OT they probably win back to back superbowls.2019 Chiefs with all the shiny hood ornaments and substantially better defense = ring Has the Browns experiment with paying high priced vet receivers worked yet? The best and most cost efficient way to acquire super weapons is to draft and train them yourself, for that you need a QB willing to play with and train those guys. |
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Post by digger0862 on May 25, 2020 17:11:57 GMT -5
There's only so many pro bowlers to go around. There's also a salary cap. There are roster limits. There are injuries. There are knuckleheads who let you down. There are so many obstacles to building a complete team. Of the top 10 highest scoring Patriots teams, only 2, 5th and 9th, won super bowls. Talent at receiver and o-line helps QBs. Duh, but does it help win championships? Of the top ten all-time highest scoring NFL teams none won the super bowl. Only 1 in the top 20 won a super bowl, the 1999 Rams. The best teams win super bowls, not the best offense. Would have helped us win one last year. 6 championships and the longest running dynasty the NFL has ever seen and it still isn't enough. How much is enough? |
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Post by Wozzy on May 25, 2020 18:11:47 GMT -5
LOL no ring ONLY because we beat them in the game before the superbowl. If KC wins the coin flip for OT they probably win back to back superbowls. The Patriots defense got stops on KC in 2018, probably could have done so again regardless of the coin toss. The Chiefs were only in that game due to some timely yellow flags, otherwise its a blowout. The Chiefs defense was ranked 28th in 2018, there's only 32 teams... do the math... they sucked... royally. There's three phases to football, you need to be well rounded and good at all three. Weapons need a good QB who is invested in winning and their own growth as weapons. In football everyone needs everyone = TEAM. Of course the "weapons are everything" crowd wants to dismiss teams like the Browns, in theory they should be amazing... but life isn't as simple as a Madden simulation and football is won by 1-53. The Falcons traded the world for Julio Jones, to date he has zero rings and he's the receiving best weapon in the league. |
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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 19:53:22 GMT -5
Would have helped us win one last year. 6 championships and the longest running dynasty the NFL has ever seen and it still isn't enough. How much is enough? Is 7 more than 6? I'm confused |
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Post by TrueChamp on May 25, 2020 20:03:17 GMT -5
And the Browns shouldn't be in the discussion. We are talking about playoff teams and teams playing for a superbowl. Obviously a team that sucks every year doesn't have any bearing on the conversation. The Rams, Eagles, and Cowboys have performed the best(as a team) when they had the best weapons around their QB...because again, it's a QB driven league. The Patriots defense got stops on KC in 2018, probably could have done so again regardless of the coin toss. The Chiefs were only in that game due to some timely yellow flags, otherwise its a blowout. The Chiefs defense was ranked 28th in 2018, there's only 32 teams... do the math... they sucked... royally. There's three phases to football, you need to be well rounded and good at all three. Weapons need a good QB who is invested in winning and their own growth as weapons. In football everyone needs everyone = TEAM. Of course the "weapons are everything" crowd wants to dismiss teams like the Browns, in theory they should be amazing... but life isn't as simple as a Madden simulation and football is won by 1-53. The Falcons traded the world for Julio Jones, to date he has zero rings and he's the receiving best weapon in the league. Erroneous! Julio Jones? What are you even talking about? In 2018 the Chiefs were good enough to win the superbowl and most likely would have if not for the N.E Patriots. You ignore they had home field in the AFC with their 28th whatever ranked D because they had the best offense. The Patriots were the only team in the league that was going into KC and winning that game. 100% The Chiefs were beatng the Rams 100%. Goff was a deer in the headlights all of superbowl week. By the way the Chiefs let up 25 points per game in the 2019 post season. At the same time they scored 39 points per game on offense  . The only difference this year was that our own offense wasn't good enough to get the opportunity to knock the Chiefs off again. |
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Post by Wozzy on May 25, 2020 23:42:39 GMT -5
Erroneous! Julio Jones? What are you even talking about? In 2018 the Chiefs were good enough to win the superbowl and most likely would have if not for the N.E Patriots. You ignore they had home field in the AFC with their 28th whatever ranked D because they had the best offense. The Patriots were the only team in the league that was going into KC and winning that game. 100% The Chiefs were beatng the Rams 100%. Goff was a deer in the headlights all of superbowl week. By the way the Chiefs let up 25 points per game in the 2019 post season. At the same time they scored 39 points per game on offense . The only difference this year was that our own offense wasn't good enough to get the opportunity to knock the Chiefs off again. The 2018 Chiefs didn't win the Super Bowl. Full stop. They weren't 100% going to beat the Rams considering the team they lost to barely did. The Patriots D provided a historically good Super Bowl performance, the Chiefs had zero shot of that happening. So defense wins championships... until Truechamp has a point to make, then all football truisms go out the window. The 2019 Chiefs actually did win the Super Bowl, their defensive rank was almost twice as good as the season prior and they actually got better as the season went on as they added key pieces. Their offense conversely had Matt Moore at QB and lost Tyreek Hill to injury for a stretch... and still won a Super Bowl. Football championships are won by teams good in all three phases... period. Not the team that spends the most on weapons. Shiny hood ornament weapons are the domain of fantasy football junkies and fanboys. It's not about the most pro bowl nods, or even scoring the most points, it's about winning the point differential battle. |
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Post by mthurl on May 26, 2020 7:04:31 GMT -5
Erroneous! Julio Jones? What are you even talking about? In 2018 the Chiefs were good enough to win the superbowl and most likely would have if not for the N.E Patriots. You ignore they had home field in the AFC with their 28th whatever ranked D because they had the best offense. The Patriots were the only team in the league that was going into KC and winning that game. 100% The Chiefs were beatng the Rams 100%. Goff was a deer in the headlights all of superbowl week. By the way the Chiefs let up 25 points per game in the 2019 post season. At the same time they scored 39 points per game on offense . The only difference this year was that our own offense wasn't good enough to get the opportunity to knock the Chiefs off again. The 2018 Chiefs didn't win the Super Bowl. Full stop. They weren't 100% going to beat the Rams considering the team they lost to barely did. The Patriots D provided a historically good Super Bowl performance, the Chiefs had zero shot of that happening. So defense wins championships... until Truechamp has a point to make, then all football truisms go out the window. The 2019 Chiefs actually did win the Super Bowl, their defensive rank was almost twice as good as the season prior and they actually got better as the season went on as they added key pieces. Their offense conversely had Matt Moore at QB and lost Tyreek Hill to injury for a stretch... and still won a Super Bowl. Football championships are won by teams good in all three phases... period. Not the team that spends the most on weapons. Shiny hood ornament weapons are the domain of fantasy football junkies and fanboys. It's not about the most pro bowl nods, or even scoring the most points, it's about winning the point differential battle. Wasn’t the team that the Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl higher ranked in defense? |
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Post by mthurl on May 26, 2020 7:08:01 GMT -5
It’s not even open for debate...weapons and an offensive line make the QB better.
If Tampa has a decent offensive line this season you’ll see this point made immediately. Brady will effortlessly slice and dice his way through the season....tossing pass after pass to Godwin, Evans and Gronk. Everything will look better. Everything will look easy. Players never talked about before will become household names and go on to get themselves large contracts. They haven’t had a decent QB in Tampa in a long time, that’s about to change.
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Post by Wozzy on May 26, 2020 7:19:38 GMT -5
Wasn’t the team that the Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl higher ranked in defense? I don't recall saying the team with the higher defensive ranking wins every time, only that you need a good defense to win a ring. The Chiefs defense was better than their already improved from 2018 defensive ranking due to additions they made in-season, the 49ers was slightly worse due to injuries that took players from them for the playoffs. Nobody is saying you don't need balance, to be good on offense as well. But the fantasy football notion of throwing everything at name brand WR's doesn't work... otherwise the Browns would be good. Tampa didn't have Tom and acquire the weapons, they had the weapons, all the cap-space in the world and then acquired Tom. It was the perfect situation for him, a situation NE never could have replicated. This thread amounts to a bunch of fan moaning about how the world works... or at least the salary cap. Tom almost always had great defenses, great special teams, great O-Lines and at least good weapons. "The Patriots have no talent, they only win because of Brady..."
These ^ are some of the biggest bullshit fan myths foisted upon the football watching world for the last two decades. |
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Post by Wozzy on May 26, 2020 7:27:16 GMT -5
It’s not even open for debate...weapons and an offensive line make the QB better. If Tampa has a decent offensive line this season you’ll see this point made immediately. Brady will effortlessly slice and dice his way through the season....tossing pass after pass to Godwin, Evans and Gronk. Everything will look better. Everything will look easy. Players never talked about before will become household names and go on to get themselves large contracts. They haven’t had a decent QB in Tampa in a long time, that’s about to change. Nobody said point A wasn't true, in fact nobody ever questioned it. Bruce Arians led the league in passing yards with Jameis Winston and a worse O-Line, I suspect Tampa will be good this year as well. |
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Post by tanbass on May 26, 2020 7:31:58 GMT -5
Thank you PFF for explaining that complex idea that Oline and WRs are important parts of making an offense work....who knew??
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Post by mthurl on May 26, 2020 7:33:36 GMT -5
Wasn’t the team that the Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl higher ranked in defense? I don't recall saying the team with the higher defensive ranking wins every time, only that you need a good defense to win a ring. The Chiefs defense was better than their already improved from 2018 defensive ranking due to additions they made in-season, the 49ers was slightly worse due to injuries that took players from them for the playoffs. Nobody is saying you don't need balance, to be good on offense as well. But the fantasy football notion of throwing everything at name brand WR's doesn't work... otherwise the Browns would be good. Tampa didn't have Tom and acquire the weapons, they had the weapons, all the cap-space in the world and then acquired Tom. It was the perfect situation for him, a situation NE never could have replicated. This thread amounts to a bunch of fan moaning about how the world works... or at least the salary cap. Tom almost always had great defenses, great special teams, great O-Lines and at least good weapons. "The Patriots have no talent, they only win because of Brady..."
These ^ are some of the biggest bullshit fan myths foisted upon the football watching world for the last two decades. I was asking a question, was San Frans defense higher ranked than the Chiefs? |
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Post by Wozzy on May 26, 2020 7:41:46 GMT -5
I was asking a question, was San Frans defense higher ranked than the Chiefs? Yes, but losing DJ Jones, Kwon Alexander, Demontre Moore and having Dee Ford banged up for the playoffs certainly hurt the 49ers. That along with losing their starting stud center was probably the difference between winning and losing. That they didn't have Weston Richburg to block DT Chris Jones completely explains why he took over the fourth quarter and blew up the pocket in Jimmy G's face. |
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fessin
3rd String but playing on Special Teams
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Post by fessin on May 26, 2020 9:44:28 GMT -5
The Patriots defense got stops on KC in 2018, probably could have done so again regardless of the coin toss. The Chiefs were only in that game due to some timely yellow flags, otherwise its a blowout. The Chiefs defense was ranked 28th in 2018, there's only 32 teams... do the math... they sucked... royally. There's three phases to football, you need to be well rounded and good at all three. Weapons need a good QB who is invested in winning and their own growth as weapons. In football everyone needs everyone = TEAM. Of course the "weapons are everything" crowd wants to dismiss teams like the Browns, in theory they should be amazing... but life isn't as simple as a Madden simulation and football is won by 1-53. The Falcons traded the world for Julio Jones, to date he has zero rings and he's the receiving best weapon in the league. Erroneous! Julio Jones? What are you even talking about? In 2018 the Chiefs were good enough to win the superbowl and most likely would have if not for the N.E Patriots. You ignore they had home field in the AFC with their 28th whatever ranked D because they had the best offense. The Patriots were the only team in the league that was going into KC and winning that game. 100% The Chiefs were beatng the Rams 100%. Goff was a deer in the headlights all of superbowl week. By the way the Chiefs let up 25 points per game in the 2019 post season. At the same time they scored 39 points per game on offense . The only difference this year was that our own offense wasn't good enough to get the opportunity to knock the Chiefs off again. They also had Mahones and Hill with a combined cap hit of around $6.5 Mil. Lets see how they do when they need to resign Mahones. |
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Post by digger0862 on May 26, 2020 11:35:37 GMT -5
6 championships and the longest running dynasty the NFL has ever seen and it still isn't enough. How much is enough? Is 7 more than 6? I'm confused When you have more than you need that's called greed and covetousness. |
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Post by TrueChamp on May 26, 2020 11:43:13 GMT -5
Is 7 more than 6? I'm confused When you have more than you need that's called greed and covetousness. Come on digger this is sports we're talking about not food to feed families. More is better. Winning is the goal. From now on I will try to preface everything I say with "Bill knows more than I do, the Patriots are the best ever and could never be improved upon, the Patriots have never done anything wrong, we are perfect" This way we can talk about the team without any of the above every being in question...heaven forbid. |
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Post by TrueChamp on May 26, 2020 11:44:29 GMT -5
The 2018 Chiefs didn't win the Super Bowl. Full stop. They weren't 100% going to beat the Rams considering the team they lost to barely did. The Patriots D provided a historically good Super Bowl performance, the Chiefs had zero shot of that happening. So defense wins championships... until Truechamp has a point to make, then all football truisms go out the window. The 2019 Chiefs actually did win the Super Bowl, their defensive rank was almost twice as good as the season prior and they actually got better as the season went on as they added key pieces. Their offense conversely had Matt Moore at QB and lost Tyreek Hill to injury for a stretch... and still won a Super Bowl. Football championships are won by teams good in all three phases... period. Not the team that spends the most on weapons. Shiny hood ornament weapons are the domain of fantasy football junkies and fanboys. It's not about the most pro bowl nods, or even scoring the most points, it's about winning the point differential battle. Wasn’t the team that the Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl higher ranked in defense? Defense wins championships, except the chiefs let up 25 points per game and scored 39 points per game in their 3 games to glory. Got it. |
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