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Post by patriotsnumero1fan on Oct 14, 2023 16:14:52 GMT -5
Some of these QBs will be older. For example nix and penix will be 24 entering their first season
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 14, 2023 16:20:28 GMT -5
Penix made the first error - INT
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 14, 2023 16:23:07 GMT -5
Some of these QBs will be older. For example nix and penix will be 24 entering their first season I don't think that will be a problem. They come into the league more mature. I have no expectation that these QBs coming out will have long NFL careers. Low probability they will be playing past 32.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 14, 2023 16:46:34 GMT -5
The QB is the cart and the horse, without him there is nothing. prioritizing build I understand what you are saying, but you get the QB while you can, if you can. Sit him for a year if you have to (if you can do nothing to improve your line), but that shouldn’t be an issue...they have money to spend, free agents they can sign, and most likely will be selecting high in every round. 30 offensive linemen will be selected during the draft, some will turn out really good. Meanwhile, the quarterback position is a much more rare position to draft and fill. I’d grab that QB if I could. And I’d definitely make the line a top priority too...there’s trades, free agency and the draft. They should have plenty of assets available to build a decent line, and add a weapon or two. IMO. Agree they need much better QB play. But I look at teams like Philly and SF and the key to those offenses is the OL. You could plug in a lot of QBs on those teams and be fine. As opposed to teams like KC and Buffalo that are pretty much totally dependent on the quarterback’s skills. Throw Cincy in that group as well. I do agree that if you have an opportunity to draft the potential franchise QB, you really have no choice but to go for it. I suppose that’s Captain Obvious stuff right there. But, the OL is a big, big deal. Ahhh, just give me both. Plus coaching, scheme, weaponz… damn, we need a lot. Am with you on this. 1) Despite what Sean Payton says, guys who look like generational QBs in college have a very high probability of ending up being not. 2) I am assuming Maye will be the first QB picked. After him, I don't think the difference between all other QBs (Williams, Sanders, Penix, Nix, McCarthy, J Daniels) is big. They are interchangeable. So my preference would be to prioritize building a really strong OL. Have a list of QBs that you could pick opportunistically after the first round.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 14, 2023 16:49:29 GMT -5
Nix has a tendency to stare at the receiver he is throwing to.
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Post by squishthefish on Oct 14, 2023 17:15:07 GMT -5
Agree they need much better QB play. But I look at teams like Philly and SF and the key to those offenses is the OL. You could plug in a lot of QBs on those teams and be fine. As opposed to teams like KC and Buffalo that are pretty much totally dependent on the quarterback’s skills. Throw Cincy in that group as well. I do agree that if you have an opportunity to draft the potential franchise QB, you really have no choice but to go for it. I suppose that’s Captain Obvious stuff right there. But, the OL is a big, big deal. Ahhh, just give me both. Plus coaching, scheme, weaponz… damn, we need a lot. Am with you on this. 1) Despite what Sean Payton says, guys who look like generational QBs in college have a very high probability of ending up being not. 2) I am assuming Maye will be the first QB picked. After him, I don't think the difference between all other QBs (Williams, Sanders, Penix, Nix, McCarthy, J Daniels) is big. They are interchangeable. So my preference would be to prioritize building a really strong OL. Have a list of QBs that you could pick opportunistically after the first round. Barring injury or some other unforeseen development, Williams goes first. That is good news for pats fans if we have the second pick and Maye declares!
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Post by section136 on Oct 14, 2023 17:48:02 GMT -5
I don't think we are as far apart as you're first statement would suggest. We just have different ideas on the QB position's value. I could be wrong but I think what you are seeking is a very rare thing and the business of the draft creates players who are seriously over valued - QB's in particular. IMO Tom Brady's greatest asset as a QB was his leadership ability, his drive and the work ethic he showed made men want to follow him through a brick wall. I don't think Brady was ever the most talented and/or athletic QB in the league but he was the smartest and most gifted leader year in and year out. If this was his 3rd year on this team - people would be screaming for his head and Zappe fever would be just as strong. But in the beginning of his career he had a very stout D, a very stout offensive line and decent weapons. He won because of the team and because of his determination and energy. There were a lot of nail biters and ugly wins but he delivered and he wasn't even the GOAT yet. If you and others here are really honest and memories are still intact you all know it's true. Bledsoe was the more physically talented QB, Brady was the smartest. they don't measure character or football intelligence and leadership in the draft metrics - that's why I don't want a 1st round QB. I want a difference maker and there's too few QB's that qualify, to waste a 1st round pick on. You are right, I am looking for a very rare thing - an absolute equalizer at the quarterback position - and I think there may be two of them available at the top of next years draft. I want one. People are calling these two, generational talents, I tend to agree. I get what you’re saying, it’s an overall team that makes it work. I agree. But I also think you’re discounting what Brady was a little bit, he was more than just a good player with great leadership skills. That’s will only get you so far, he also had the talent, and the extreme consistency/toughness/yearly improvement that was linear. He is considered the best player in NFL history, despite playing on 6-7 vastly different rosters in his career. The results were always the same...you were going to be competing for a Super Bowl. I’ll take a guy like that anywhere in the draft, but unfortunately I think it’ll need to be the top 1-3 picks next year to land yourself the opportunity. Maybe there are others that will be available later, and go on to better careers with better opportunities, but the unique talent this year seems to be Williams and Drake. IMO. But I get what you’re saying. I knew that I was walking a fine line with my post and I tried really hard to avoid appearing as if I didn't think he had the physical tools. Thanks for taking the time to try to understand the spirit of the post! Again, I don't think we're far apart philosophically and part of me hopes you're right.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 15, 2023 1:56:51 GMT -5
Am with you on this. 1) Despite what Sean Payton says, guys who look like generational QBs in college have a very high probability of ending up being not. 2) I am assuming Maye will be the first QB picked. After him, I don't think the difference between all other QBs (Williams, Sanders, Penix, Nix, McCarthy, J Daniels) is big. They are interchangeable. So my preference would be to prioritize building a really strong OL. Have a list of QBs that you could pick opportunistically after the first round. Barring injury or some other unforeseen development, Williams goes first. That is good news for pats fans if we have the second pick and Maye declares! He threw 3 INTs today. The first one was ugly. Are you still sure about your post?
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Post by squishthefish on Oct 15, 2023 2:00:00 GMT -5
Barring injury or some other unforeseen development, Williams goes first. That is good news for pats fans if we have the second pick and Maye declares! He threw 3 INTs today. The first one was ugly. Are you still sure about your post? Yes, I’m still sure.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 15, 2023 2:09:19 GMT -5
Based on what I saw today, I like ND's Joe Alt more than Bama's Latham.
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Post by mthurl on Oct 15, 2023 6:12:27 GMT -5
You are right, I am looking for a very rare thing - an absolute equalizer at the quarterback position - and I think there may be two of them available at the top of next years draft. I want one. People are calling these two, generational talents, I tend to agree. I get what you’re saying, it’s an overall team that makes it work. I agree. But I also think you’re discounting what Brady was a little bit, he was more than just a good player with great leadership skills. That’s will only get you so far, he also had the talent, and the extreme consistency/toughness/yearly improvement that was linear. He is considered the best player in NFL history, despite playing on 6-7 vastly different rosters in his career. The results were always the same...you were going to be competing for a Super Bowl. I’ll take a guy like that anywhere in the draft, but unfortunately I think it’ll need to be the top 1-3 picks next year to land yourself the opportunity. Maybe there are others that will be available later, and go on to better careers with better opportunities, but the unique talent this year seems to be Williams and Drake. IMO. But I get what you’re saying. I knew that I was walking a fine line with my post and I tried really hard to avoid appearing as if I didn't think he had the physical tools. Thanks for taking the time to try to understand the spirit of the post! Again, I don't think we're far apart philosophically and part of me hopes you're right. I get it. And you also may be 100% right about your thoughts on drafting a QB later in the draft. I haven’t looked at all the QBs available next year, there very well could be some excellent prospects available that will go on to have successful careers over Calib Williams or Drake Maye.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Oct 15, 2023 7:34:36 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Oct 15, 2023 8:18:58 GMT -5
Also, an interesting note that will probably yield nothing, but... ... a good buddy of mine, is a HS principal down in NC, the HC at his school is Drake Maye's former HS coach, so my buddy has the players phone #, and they text from time to time. I'll see if I can line up an exclusive "2024 PATRIOTS DRAFT THREAD" Interview.
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Post by patriotsnumero1fan on Oct 15, 2023 8:21:10 GMT -5
Caleb Williams looked like Caleb Prescott last night. USC finally played a decent team.
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Post by section136 on Oct 15, 2023 8:22:58 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him. I don't disagree with your premise, my concern is - who decides a QB is a round 1 prospect and how often are they wrong? A quick check finds plenty of evidence that a round 1 QB that becomes a good/great/elite QB is a rarity and not the smart way to go. Last night I watched the guy everyone is raving about crumble when faced with an aggressive, physical defense. For me it was a tale of two teams...USC - what I don't want the Pats to become and the Irish - what I do want them to become. I realize it's only one game and the Irish have had their rough patches but I know which QB I would want and it would cost me a 4-5th round pick. Disclaimer: I've only watched Hartman as a fan - I use this as an example scenario only.
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Post by rkarp on Oct 15, 2023 8:26:25 GMT -5
Based on what I saw today, I like ND's Joe Alt more than Bama's Latham. I like them both. would love to see the Pats draft, develop and mange the roster so that they can keep a franchise OL for 8-10 years. would go a long way in making a QB look good.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Oct 15, 2023 8:33:34 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him. I don't disagree with your premise, my concern is - who decides a QB is a round 1 prospect and how often are they wrong? A quick check finds plenty of evidence that a round 1 QB that becomes a good/great/elite QB is a rarity and not the smart way to go. Last night I watched the guy everyone is raving about crumble when faced with an aggressive, physical defense. For me it was a tale of two teams...USC - what I don't want the Pats to become and the Irish - what I do want them to become. I realize it's only one game and the Irish have had their rough patches but I know which QB I would want and it would cost me a 4-5th round pick. Disclaimer: I've only watched Hartman as a fan - I use this as an example scenario only.
That is what BB/MG are paid the big bucks to do. And, I believe evidence shows, if you want your franchise QB, you're more likely to find him in Rd 1 or 2, etc. That's not to say you can't get one later in the draft, as we NE fans know quite well, but I personally wouldn't make it my strategy. I'm also a fan of drafting a QB every year, or most years. I'd also say, if this season continues to trend in the wrong direction, and/or they finish below .500, I want a change at the top, and would like to see the next HC be able to draft his guy, should he choose to do so early. And, if RKK feels super strongly about the HC (I still think it's Mayo), I'd want him to be able to select his GM/Personnel guy, vs. hiring the personnel guy first, to then make the HC hire.
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Post by muzwell on Oct 15, 2023 9:00:47 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him. I guess. But a very high percentage of quarterbacks drafted in the top half of the first round fail. I would say that a high percentage of those that failed did so because of the team they were drafted by. Not all. Some were just not worthy, but many would have been just fine if they weren’t drafted by a team that lacked the necessary supports. Coaching and an OL that gives them a chance would be the primary supports. There’s a hotshot, or several hotshot QBs annually. An argument can be made not to bother drafting one until you have the supports in place. Because it’s more likely not going to work without those things. So the quarterback is the last piece needed to complete the puzzle. Not the first piece and we’ll figure out the rest as we go. You can look at Mac’s situation as an example of this. He had a fair amount of support in year 1. Stable coaching on the offensive side and mostly good OL play. Year 2, that was removed. And here we are. If Mac was drafted by Shanahan do you have any doubt he’d have been successful? I don’t. He can do what Brock Purdy is doing or what Jimmy G did. Which is also why I’m dead set against Mayo or any defensive coach taking over after Bill. I want that guy to be the OC and preferably the quarterback coach too. It’s too important these days.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Oct 15, 2023 9:09:18 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him. I guess. But a very high percentage of quarterbacks drafted in the top half of the first round fail. I would say that a high percentage of those that failed did so because of the team they were drafted by. Not all. Some were just not worthy, but many would have been just fine if they weren’t drafted by a team that lacked the necessary supports. Coaching and an OL that gives them a chance would be the primary supports. There’s a hotshot, or several hotshot QBs annually. An argument can be made not to bother drafting one until you have the supports in place. Because it’s more likely not going to work without those things. So the quarterback is the last piece needed to complete the puzzle. Not the first piece and we’ll figure out the rest as we go. You can look at Mac’s situation as an example of this. He had a fair amount of support in year 1. Stable coaching on the offensive side and mostly good OL play. Year 2, that was removed. And here we are. If Mac was drafted by Shanahan do you have any doubt he’d have been successful? I don’t. He can do what Brock Purdy is doing or what Jimmy G did. Which is also why I’m dead set against Mayo or any defensive coach taking over after Bill. I want that guy to be the OC and preferably the quarterback coach too. It’s too important these days. I just don't agree with this philosophy. EDIT: Now, I'm not saying draft a QB just to draft a QB, but if you evaluate the available talent, and identify a guy as one who could be a franchise guy for you, I don't think you hold off on drafting him, because you have other areas that also need to be addressed. Trey Lance was handpicked by Shanahan and has already been moved, so I do have some doubt that he'd thrive under Shanahan, just because he's Shanahan. With your last point, I don't disagree. I've long been an advocate for defensive minded HC's, but I can see the value in having your HC be an offensive guy. Both in terms of team structure, but being able to maintain scheme at a high level, should your OC land a gig elsewhere.
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Post by Wozzy on Oct 15, 2023 9:31:59 GMT -5
I guess. But a very high percentage of quarterbacks drafted in the top half of the first round fail. I would say that a high percentage of those that failed did so because of the team they were drafted by. Not all. Some were just not worthy, but many would have been just fine if they weren’t drafted by a team that lacked the necessary supports. Coaching and an OL that gives them a chance would be the primary supports. There’s a hotshot, or several hotshot QBs annually. An argument can be made not to bother drafting one until you have the supports in place. Because it’s more likely not going to work without those things. So the quarterback is the last piece needed to complete the puzzle. Not the first piece and we’ll figure out the rest as we go. You can look at Mac’s situation as an example of this. He had a fair amount of support in year 1. Stable coaching on the offensive side and mostly good OL play. Year 2, that was removed. And here we are. If Mac was drafted by Shanahan do you have any doubt he’d have been successful? I don’t. He can do what Brock Purdy is doing or what Jimmy G did. Which is also why I’m dead set against Mayo or any defensive coach taking over after Bill. I want that guy to be the OC and preferably the quarterback coach too. It’s too important these days. Mac fell apart after week thirteen in year one, never improved or got better in year two until he heard Gillette Stadium chanting Zappe's name and then barely improved, he just stopped turning it over so much... then he continued his barely adequate play into this season until the Cowboy game when he had all his ducks in a row for a breakout game... then he imploded. The biggest mistake the Patriots made in the QB evaluation process came last year when they didn't ride the hot hand and keep playing Zappe against the Bears. Now he's either not comfortable with O'Brien, or the opposite is true, or he's having a sophomore slump. I've grown convinced Mac Jones is just mentally weak, doesn't have any killer instinct. He's just happy being an NFL player.
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Post by thehub on Oct 15, 2023 9:40:06 GMT -5
I don't disagree with your premise, my concern is - who decides a QB is a round 1 prospect and how often are they wrong? A quick check finds plenty of evidence that a round 1 QB that becomes a good/great/elite QB is a rarity and not the smart way to go. Last night I watched the guy everyone is raving about crumble when faced with an aggressive, physical defense. For me it was a tale of two teams...USC - what I don't want the Pats to become and the Irish - what I do want them to become. I realize it's only one game and the Irish have had their rough patches but I know which QB I would want and it would cost me a 4-5th round pick. Disclaimer: I've only watched Hartman as a fan - I use this as an example scenario only.
That is what BB/MG are paid the big bucks to do. And, I believe evidence shows, if you want your franchise QB, you're more likely to find him in Rd 1 or 2, etc. That's not to say you can't get one later in the draft, as we NE fans know quite well, but I personally wouldn't make it my strategy. I'm also a fan of drafting a QB every year, or most years. I'd also say, if this season continues to trend in the wrong direction, and/or they finish below .500, I want a change at the top, and would like to see the next HC be able to draft his guy, should he choose to do so early. And, if RKK feels super strongly about the HC (I still think it's Mayo), I'd want him to be able to select his GM/Personnel guy, vs. hiring the personnel guy first, to then make the HC hire. I want changes and the the new GM/HC to select Mayo. If BB stays watch him trade for Fields and draft a Tackle in the top ten.
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 15, 2023 12:36:15 GMT -5
My thoughts on the QB discussion haven't changed... while it's a team sport, if you don't have a good/great/elite QB, your season is essentially over before it started (yes, there are outliers)... its the most valuable thing in all of team sports. With that in mind, acquiring your starting QB should be the top personnel priority for any team without one (i.e. New England), and that includes drafting one in Rd 1, if you identify your guy, and have the capital to select him. Do you see that QB in this upcoming draft? If so, who?
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 15, 2023 13:43:24 GMT -5
Right now, I just don't want the NEP to end up being a perennial division bottom dweller. So I tried looking at what they drafted each year and the ensuing rank in the division In bold are pro-bowlers
Detroit Lions
2001: R1P18 OT Jeff Backus - Last 2002: R1P3 QB Joey Harrington - Last 2003: R1P3 WR Charles Rogers - Last 2004: R1P7 WR Roy Williams; RB Kevin Jones - 3 2005: R1P10 WR Mike Williams - 3 2006: R1P9 LB Ernie Sims - Last 2007: R1P2 WR Calvin Johnson - T-Last 2008: R1P17 OT Gosder Cherilus - Last 2009: R1P1 QB Matt Stafford, R1P20 Brandon Pettigrew - Last 2010: R1P2 DT Ndamukong Suh - T-Last 2011: R1P13 DT Nick Fairley - 2 2012: R1P23 OT Riley Reiff - Last 2013: R1P5 DE Ezekiel Ansah - 3 2014: R1P10 TE Eric Ebron - 2 2015: R1P28 OG Laken Tomlinson - 3 2016: R1P16 OT Taylor Decker - 2 2017: R1P21 LB Jarrad Davis - 2 2018: R1P20 C Frank Ragnow - Last 2019: R1P8 TE TJ Hockenson - Last 2020: R1P3 CB Jeff Okudah - Last 2021: R1P7 OT Penei Sewell - Last 2022: R1P2 DE Aidan Hutchinson; R1P12 WR Jameson Williams - 2
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Post by seattlepat2016 on Oct 15, 2023 14:11:40 GMT -5
From the Lions' experience, one really bad drafting pattern is this...
Draft the hotshot QB - ensuing season ends up being bad. End of season evaluation: Our QB is good. He needs a weapon/playmaker Year 2: They draft a hotshot weapon. Ensuing season ends up bad. Evaluation: He needs more weapons Year 3: They draft another hotshot weapon. Ensuing season, they get out of last place. Evaluation: We're on the right path - we need more weapons. Year 4: Another hotshot weapon is drafted. Ensuing season, they are still 3rd in the div. A couple of years later, they're back to last in the div.
This is what they did starting in 2002.
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Post by squishthefish on Oct 15, 2023 14:35:54 GMT -5
From the Lions' experience, one really bad drafting pattern is this... Draft the hotshot QB - ensuing season ends up being bad. End of season evaluation: Our QB is good. He needs a weapon/playmaker Year 2: They draft a hotshot weapon. Ensuing season ends up bad. Evaluation: He needs more weapons Year 3: They draft another hotshot weapon. Ensuing season, they get out of last place. Evaluation: We're on the right path - we need more weapons. Year 4: Another hotshot weapon is drafted. Ensuing season, they are still 3rd in the div. A couple of years later, they're back to last in the div. This is what they did starting in 2002. If this draft history was a car, the lions drafted the transmission and then get the car painted and a new sound system before worrying about if the engine works or if the vehicle has tires. Qb and trenches to protect the qb along with stopping the run and applying pressure on the qb before looking at wr.
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