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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 10:33:53 GMT -5
I refuse to look at the obvious with BB. Kids falling different story, (Top 15), I don't think Irv Smith is one of these kids. Not sure what you mean?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 10:34:57 GMT -5
I don't think TE with 1st pick. I think 90% of all mock drafts have Pats picking a TE in 1st Round.
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Post by wazzu on Apr 9, 2019 10:36:33 GMT -5
On the Irv Smith conversation. I think the best plan of action if NE is targeting him is to select BPA at 32. If that's Smith for them, so be it. Take him at 32. If it's someone else (Risner???) then take them there and then trade up from 56 for Smith on Day to. We have plenty of picks to make that move, and I think a guy like Smith would justify a jump up into the Top 40-45 from #56.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 10:37:13 GMT -5
RE: My question on Irv Smith Jr. I guess I'm a little higher on him than most, as I think he's a good, realistic option for pick #32, and while I don't feel like he's a Rd 1 lock, I don't see him getting out of the top 45 or so. And I've watched a lot of tape on a lot of players during this cycle, and he, IMO, has some of the most consistently good tape that I've seen. And found it interesting that Danielson mentioned him lining up at (11) different spots on the field, during one of this broadcasts... and we know versatility is the name of the game in NE. I also like that he's still very young, turning 21 around the start of camp, and has already show a good deal of development over his time at Alabama, and producing against top level competition. For example, here he is roasting Grant Delpit (a projected 2020 Rd 1/Top 10 pick at the moment), who had man coverage on him: I agree with your assessment of Smith. I don't see him getting out of the top 45 either. Yes, he's versatile and he doesn't get enough credit in the blocking department. He's a very good receiving option, and I love how he uses his body down low in the RZ. I'd feel 100% okay taking him at 32 given our needs and his versatility. Like you I think he has some athletic limitations, but he's young, still learning. he plays faster than what he was timed at, and I think he will continue to refine his route running. People always get this wrong. Pet peeve of mine. Players do not play faster than they time, some players play to their timed speed where as many other players play much slower than timed speeds which makes the slower guys seem as fast or faster because they can play to their timed speed on the field. Players do not actually magically get faster on a football field, the perception is changed because of the drop off compared to those others who have to ramp it down during the course of play. All anyone needs to do is watch a gauntlet drill at the combine for example. Some players run through it full speed, in total control and looking completely comfortable and natural. Others have to ramp it way down and still look stressed and unnatural. Which is really where the saying practice doesn't make perfect, perfect practice makes perfect comes from. As well as the term over-speed training, and why good coaches spend some time having players do some of it. If you don't push the ability to perform a skill at a high speed past your normal comfort level you will never progress to be able to do it at a faster/higher level. All you will be doing is training/conditioning yourself to perform slowly, whatever the skill is. That is all playing against a higher/better level of competition is. It is forcing you to do what you already do at a faster pace than you are used to or currently comfortable with. It is also why so much of the draft is a crapshoot and Giant projection. Some players had much better coaching and opportunity to improve at certain skills than others but it doesn't mean the ones who didn't can't.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 10:41:00 GMT -5
I've already said this before but I will reiterate it. I do not have a 1st round grade on a single TE in this class outside of Hock and it would be a later first.
Do I think 2 or 3 TE's could go? Sure. I am simply saying I wouldn't.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 10:42:59 GMT -5
I agree with your assessment of Smith. I don't see him getting out of the top 45 either. Yes, he's versatile and he doesn't get enough credit in the blocking department. He's a very good receiving option, and I love how he uses his body down low in the RZ. I'd feel 100% okay taking him at 32 given our needs and his versatility. Like you I think he has some athletic limitations, but he's young, still learning. he plays faster than what he was timed at, and I think he will continue to refine his route running. People always get this wrong. Pet peeve of mine. Players do not play faster than they time, some players play to their timed speed where as many other players play much slower than timed speeds which makes the slower guys seem as fast or faster because they can play to their timed speed on the field. Players do not actually magically get faster on a football field, the perception is changed because of the drop off compared to those others who have to ramp it down during the course of play. All anyone needs to do is watch a gauntlet drill at the combine for example. Some players run through it full speed, in total control and looking completely comfortable and natural. Others have to ramp it way down and still look stressed and unnatural. I think players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball can "play faster", due to instincts and awareness. In other words, they might be able to get to a player faster than some "faster" prospect that's slow to react and/or doesn't read his keys. I also think there's a difference between track speed and football speed, though that can be harder to decipher on tape.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 10:47:30 GMT -5
I keep going back to losing Flowers and Brown, plus Cannon's and Bennett's age and contracts, along with Guard Thuney's FA for next year. I don't know, I just keep looking at the big boys, that's the more foundation to this team. I still feel we can get a Good TE a little later, then the 1st Round. Right now, I have Jerry Tillery as my #1 Pick, with Chris Lindstrom right there.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 10:53:20 GMT -5
For me. AT 32. I feel they might be there for us. 1A Tillery 1B Lindstrom 1C Risner
Probably have to flip a coin. I'll figure it out.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 10:55:42 GMT -5
People always get this wrong. Pet peeve of mine. Players do not play faster than they time, some players play to their timed speed where as many other players play much slower than timed speeds which makes the slower guys seem as fast or faster because they can play to their timed speed on the field. Players do not actually magically get faster on a football field, the perception is changed because of the drop off compared to those others who have to ramp it down during the course of play. All anyone needs to do is watch a gauntlet drill at the combine for example. Some players run through it full speed, in total control and looking completely comfortable and natural. Others have to ramp it way down and still look stressed and unnatural. I think players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball can "play faster", due to instincts and awareness. In other words, they might be able to get to a player faster than some "faster" prospect that's slow to react and/or doesn't read his keys. I also think there's a difference between track speed and football speed, though that can be harder to decipher on tape. On the defensive side you are still talking about perception "because of faster diagnosis because of better film study". He is not actually running faster than he is normally able to run simply because he has a football uniform on and between the chalk.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 10:59:07 GMT -5
I think players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball can "play faster", due to instincts and awareness. In other words, they might be able to get to a player faster than some "faster" prospect that's slow to react and/or doesn't read his keys. I also think there's a difference between track speed and football speed, though that can be harder to decipher on tape. On the defensive side you are still talking about perception "because of faster diagnosis because of better film study". He is not actually running faster. Yeah, I think there's a difference between playing faster and running faster, as football isn't always a linear sport. Not saying a 4.6 40 guy runs 4.4 on the field. Although, I think Nauta is an example of someone that doesn't look 4.9 slow on the field.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 11:01:37 GMT -5
Anybody think we are crazy enough to jump up in the 2nd Round if Simmons drops say 10 spots? I figure those teams cant take the chance on waiting for him to heal. Just a thought.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 11:03:14 GMT -5
Anybody think we are crazy enough to jump up in the 2nd Round if Simmons drops say 10 spots? I figure those teams cant take the chance on waiting for him to heal. Just a thought. I would say no, due to the nature of his transgression. Hands on females just isn't something that'll fly in Foxboro, IMO.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 11:04:16 GMT -5
For me. AT 32. I feel they might be there for us. 1A Tillery 1B Lindstrom 1C Risner Probably have to flip a coin. I'll figure it out. Makes a lot of sense... games are w/l at the LOS, and all (3) could represent BPA at #32.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 11:05:39 GMT -5
On the defensive side you are still talking about perception "because of faster diagnosis because of better film study". He is not actually running faster. Yeah, I think there's a difference between playing faster and running faster, as football isn't always a linear sport. Not saying a 4.6 40 guy runs 4.4 on the field. Although, I think Nauta is an example of someone that doesn't look 4.9 slow on the field. ...and if you go back to my original post on this topic, nauta is a guy who fits exactly what I said about the Gauntlet drill. He runs it full speed, which is not fast but looks faster than some of the faster guys who are ramping it down. Same goes for fast guys who need to pitter patter down to make a cut vs guys with less speed that stick a single foot in the ground at full speed and break 90 degrees on a dime. Has fast is the player trained to do a particular skill.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 11:09:32 GMT -5
Yeah, I think there's a difference between playing faster and running faster, as football isn't always a linear sport. Not saying a 4.6 40 guy runs 4.4 on the field. Although, I think Nauta is an example of someone that doesn't look 4.9 slow on the field. ...and if you go back to my original post on this topic, nauta is a guy who fits exactly what I said about the Gauntlet drill. He runs it full speed, which is not fast but looks faster than some of the faster guys who are ramping it down. Same goes for fast guys who need to pitter patter down to make a cut vs guys with less speed that stick a single foot in the ground at full speed and break 90 degrees on a dime. Has fast is the player trained to do a particular skill. So we agree that playing faster is possible.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 11:11:03 GMT -5
...and if you go back to my original post on this topic, nauta is a guy who fits exactly what I said about the Gauntlet drill. He runs it full speed, which is not fast but looks faster than some of the faster guys who are ramping it down. Same goes for fast guys who need to pitter patter down to make a cut vs guys with less speed that stick a single foot in the ground at full speed and break 90 degrees on a dime. Has fast is the player trained to do a particular skill. So we agree that playing faster is possible. No we agree the perception of playing faster is possible because many players can not play(perform the necessary skills) at their top end timed speed. I am just a big believer in people saying oh he plays no where near his timed speed as the norm, and wish it was the norm rather than oh he plays faster. Again, it's a me thing, a pet peeve.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2019 11:18:18 GMT -5
As you get older you never play as fast as you did in College. That's the beauty of Football, you make it up by work and studying your Opponent. Brains are the fastest thing in the Human Body...Until you get my age.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 11:40:16 GMT -5
Here is my draft board in progress if anyone wants to have a look. It is NOT Patriot specific. It IS in flux, and I will be trimming it down by draft day. NFL PreDraft Board 2019Scroll to the right to see the Legend for understanding what all the little symbols to the right of the player names represent. If anyone noticing something missing like a player being a captain that is not noted, a player being mentioned as a very good special teams player, etc. Let me know so I can add the symbol next to the player name.
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Post by patslifer on Apr 9, 2019 11:53:21 GMT -5
I agree with your assessment of Smith. I don't see him getting out of the top 45 either. Yes, he's versatile and he doesn't get enough credit in the blocking department. He's a very good receiving option, and I love how he uses his body down low in the RZ. I'd feel 100% okay taking him at 32 given our needs and his versatility. Like you I think he has some athletic limitations, but he's young, still learning. he plays faster than what he was timed at, and I think he will continue to refine his route running. People always get this wrong. Pet peeve of mine. Players do not play faster than they time, some players play to their timed speed where as many other players play much slower than timed speeds which makes the slower guys seem as fast or faster because they can play to their timed speed on the field. Players do not actually magically get faster on a football field, the perception is changed because of the drop off compared to those others who have to ramp it down during the course of play. All anyone needs to do is watch a gauntlet drill at the combine for example. Some players run through it full speed, in total control and looking completely comfortable and natural. Others have to ramp it way down and still look stressed and unnatural. Which is really where the saying practice doesn't make perfect, perfect practice makes perfect comes from. As well as the term over-speed training, and why good coaches spend some time having players do some of it. If you don't push the ability to perform a skill at a high speed past your normal comfort level you will never progress to be able to do it at a faster/higher level. All you will be doing is training/conditioning yourself to perform slowly, whatever the skill is. That is all playing against a higher/better level of competition is. It is forcing you to do what you already do at a faster pace than you are used to or currently comfortable with. It is also why so much of the draft is a crapshoot and Giant projection. Some players had much better coaching and opportunity to improve at certain skills than others but it doesn't mean the ones who didn't can't. Points well taken. Appreciate the detail here. I should have stated it differently. Not, "he plays faster than timed", but, "he looks like he plays faster than his 40 time". I say the latter because when I've seen Smith in the open field after a catch with defenders in pursuit, I've seen him outrun some corners and safeties who have better timed speeds than Smith's 4.63. Now I know it's not apples to apples because on the field pursuit doesn't equal a 40 yard dash. the point being to me he doesn't look "slow" on the field or out of place. He's beating coverage, he's outrunning defenders. On your other point about only 1 TE with a round 1 grade. I agree. Hock stands above the rest in that regard. I have a round 2 grade on Smith. But like anything else, it's supply and demand and how the chips fall on draft day.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 12:00:47 GMT -5
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 12:15:27 GMT -5
Like every year. Within position groups. I feel like there are clusters of players where you are really just splitting hairs on the players and the differentiation is probably just the intangibles and specific role fit.
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Post by ucmiami on Apr 9, 2019 12:34:36 GMT -5
The linear speed of the 40 is infrequently used on a football field which is why a lot of emphasis is on the 10 and 20 yd splits, and why the 3 cone and short shuttle are also so important. The jumps also feed into that same issue of quick twitch and change of direction skills. Even on a fly pattern a WR usually has a few jukes and if he looses speed in those a 4.3 sec 40 changes into something a lot slower. And the difference in actual distance between 4.3 speed and 4.5 speed over only say ten yards leaves a minuscule window into which a ball can be thrown.
Randy Moss was as amazing as he was on deep passes because somehow his speed at the end of the play seemed to increase and he could separate in the final 10 yards more than for all the previous 30. I have never seen anyone else match that.
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Post by mbeaulieu07 on Apr 9, 2019 12:37:59 GMT -5
Like every year. Within position groups. I feel like there are clusters of players where you are really just splitting hairs on the players and the differentiation is probably just the intangibles and specific role fit. I feel this way about the top of the S group.
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Post by lowfbiq on Apr 9, 2019 13:02:34 GMT -5
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Post by ucmiami on Apr 9, 2019 13:19:52 GMT -5
Here is my draft board in progress if anyone wants to have a look. It is NOT Patriot specific. It IS in flux, and I will be trimming it down by draft day. NFL PreDraft Board 2019Scroll to the right to see the Legend for understanding what all the little symbols to the right of the player names represent. If anyone noticing something missing like a player being a captain that is not noted, a player being mentioned as a very good special teams player, etc. Let me know so I can add the symbol next to the player name. Thanks - ton of information. Question - what is your color coding - didn't see a reference to it on the spreadsheet.
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